Obama 74.4% chance of winning, Romney 25.6%

Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight and the NYT keeps showing Obama with an increasing chance of winning the election.  Obama’s chances versus Romney’s are currently 74.4% to 25.6%.

[W]e may be approaching the point where the state polls will have to be systematically biased toward Mr. Obama in order for Mr. Romney to have strong chances of prevailing on Election Day.

From 538.com

Nate’s graph shows Obama’s chances steadily improving since October 13/14.

It’s interesting to note that Nate and HuffPost say the race is virtually tied, in terms of votes, but not according to electoral votes.  And if you look at HuffPo’s electoral map, you can see why.  At this point, Romney has to win more than is likely in order to pull it off – meaning, he has to win ever state where he has strong support (191 electoral votes), every state that leans his way (15), every tossup state (55), and he’d still be 9 electoral votes short of winning.

From Huffington Post.

That’s not to say it’s impossible, but a lot has to go Romney’s way for him to win.

Politico’s Mike Allen is saying that this could be the closest race in our lifetimes:

 If you’re a political junkie, enjoy it, soak it in: In our lifetimes, there may never be another  race that looks this close for the final two weekends.

The Huffington Post also has an interesting piece up about how Hurricane Sandy might affect the election (in case you’ve been living under a rock, there’s a massive storm heading to the East Coast that’s freaking everyone over here out). The head of Gallup is worried that the storm might make it difficult to correctly poll people who live out east.

Newport, appearing on MSNBC’s “Jansing & Co.,” responded to a question from Chris Jansing about the potential impact of the storm on Gallup’s polling by saying, “It affects us, because if a sizable hunk of the country can’t communicate — power’s out or they’re disrupted — then that can affect our national estimate. So you’re right, we might have to stop polling for the days when the storm hits, unfortunately.”

I also wonder how the storm might impede any early voting, and also it will steal the news cycle away from the candidates – though not entirely.  The President will have to weigh in, and possible tour the area – that could help or hurt depending on whether it’s seen as empathetic or opportunistic.  As for Mr. Romney, expect him to be holding lots of press conferences in people’s flooded interviews announcing that he’s there to help.



Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Instagram | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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21 Responses to “Obama 74.4% chance of winning, Romney 25.6%”

  1. Cecilia says:

    Obama is will win

  2. Andrew me says:

     In reality he has to change something like 500 000 votes and that will stand out like a sore thumb, the problem is does Obama have the willpower to fight it, or will he just tell them to take the presidency, he really does not look like someone who wants the presidency that much.

  3. Andrew me says:

     It will be a lot of fun rubbing the republicans faces in the results if he loses the popular vote but wins by a lot in the electoral college. Not to be crazy or anything but with all the lies and hatred the republican far right have been spreading i am going to love doing something i never would normally do, i am going to love laughing at the republican and teasing them and making them so pissed off they start typing in capital letters, lol what more are they going to do , lol

  4. Andrew me says:

     Well done, now more people must do this, if Romney wins by cheating the country will have the biggest financial collapse it has ever seen, and no big armed forces will be able to save it. I expect Romney to blame others but it will be on his watch and under his care that America collapses into a third world environment where at most the army will be used to control those that do not listen to there leader. America is becoming just as bad as any third world country and |Romenye and Co love it as they will be able to pay  slave wages and make a lot of money if they are not removed from the gene pool before that.

  5. Andrew me says:

     Seriously go get a job, you are so stupid i doubt anyone would hire you though, seriously blaming the president when he did everything in his power to protect the embassies is crazy talk, just remember one simple fact and it will tide you over until you see Obama smiling at you from the TV screen when he accepts the presidency for a second term, lets talk about the truth for a change and stop the lies and the crap Romney is spreading, he and his running mate are responsible for the deaths they are the ones who signed to cut the funding for security at embassies around the world, once you can get that through your thick skull you can comment again until then go back to school learn about what a fact is and what a lie is , and if you have any love for your country or care at all about the American people stop lying and get out there and start promoting Obama as the only person that can prevent the country from collapsing.

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