Post/ABC poll: Obama’s numbers softening among libs and Dems overall

I’d like to see more polls, over time, to get a sense of how “normal” these numbers are, how much they’ve moved over the past three years, and where they normally are for any president at this point in his presidency. From the Wash Post:

Support for Obama has softened considerably on the left: In the new poll, 31 percent of liberals say they are certain to vote for Obama next year, down from 46 percent in June. One in five liberals says they “definitely will not” vote for him, while a 43 percent plurality says they’ll considering casting a ballot for Obama.

I’m a bit surprised that 80% of Democrats voted for Obama in 2008, yet only 44% are willing to say they’d definitely for him in 2012.  Is that much of a drop typically?  You really shouldn’t post these kind of numbers in a vacuum, because they seem harsh on their face, and perhaps aren’t.  Yes, they show the drop from June, which is large, but I’d like to know overall, over the presidency, what these numbers were – and whether that’s typical for most presidencies?

I’m also intrigued that the White House always touts these polls showing 70 or 80-some percent of liberals “approving” of Obama.  Then we see this poll showing that only 31% of those liberals are actually sure they’ll vote for him.  There’s a discrepancy there that needs to be explained.


CyberDisobedience on Substack | @aravosis | Facebook | Instagram | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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