Latest polls show different results in Mass. Senate Race

The special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s vacant seat is scheduled for January 19th, nine days from now. There have been some recent polls showing the Republican, Scott Brown, within striking distance of the Democrat, Martha Coakley.

Yesterday, Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Brown leading Coakley by a margin of 48% – 47%.

Today, the Boston Globe released its poll, which shows Coakley leading by ‘a solid, 15-percentage-point lead”: 50% – 35%.

I have great respect for the polling of PPP. Most recently, it was the only outfit to accurately predict the loss in Maine on same-sex marriage. The Globe knows how to poll Massachusetts. I’ll leave it to Nate Silver to figure out what this means.

Special elections are always low turnout and often difficult to poll. But, this is Massachusetts, one of the bluest of blue states. And, they’re filling Ted Kennedy’s seat. It shouldn’t be close. Coakley has already won a state-wide race. She’s a known commodity. This probably isn’t about her. It appears to be an indicator of an angry electorate.

This election is going to be about turnout. Obviously, the Republican base is riled up. And, Brown is a hard-core conservative. He’s not a New England moderate — as he made clear to Sean Hannity last week stating:

“I’m not known as a social liberal, that’s for sure.’’

Brown is opposed to same-sex marriage, even though same-sex couples have been getting married in his state for over five years. And, he’s backed away from previous pro-choice views.

The GOP would love to win Kennedy’s seat. And, Brown would be the first Senator with a nude centerfold. (Just imagine the uproar from Sean Hannity and other conservatives if a Democrat had that photo spread like that in their background.)

On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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