The figures are all in a close range but any of them will be good news. For now, growth is growth. Of course much of this has to do with the stimulus. That was the plan. The question will be what about the fourth quarter and then the first quarter of 2010? It will be very important to string together two quarters and then a third, etc. Some still are concerned about faltering in the next few quarters as the impact of the stimulus lessens.
Another concern are the forecasts of increasing unemployment which are very likely to go over 10% in the near term. Hopefully those numbers start moving down soon though jobs growth does not look encouraging.
Many analysts expect the economy returned to growth in the July-September quarter, expanding at a pace of 3.3 percent. If they are right, it would end the streak of four straight quarters of contraction, the first time that’s happened on records dating to 1947.
A turnaround would be the strongest signal yet that the economy has entered a new, fragile phase of recovery and that the recession, which started in December 2007, has ended.
