Nate Silver: GOP “in good shape” to take back the House

So much for the Democratic revolution. It was fun while it was lasted. Nate from

Would 53% of the popular vote be enough for the Republicans to win a House majority? A quick look, based on my analysis with John Kastellec and Jamie Chandler of seats and votes in Congress, suggests yes.

It’s still early–and there’s a lot of scatter in those scatterplots–but if the generic polls remain this close, the Republican Party looks to be in good shape in the 2010.

P.S. Is there any hope for the Democrats? Sure. Beyond the general uncertainty in prediction, there is the general unpopularity of Republicans; also, it will be year 2 of the presidential term, not year 6 which is historically the really bad year for the incumbent party. Still and all, the numbers now definitely do not look good for the Democrats.

Forgetting for a moment that the President’s and Congress’ public display of weakness and fear has gotten us to this point, the President and Congress are now going to tell us that they need to cave even further on their promises to us, and move more to the middle, in order to preserve their hold on power. Which of course, will make both Obama and the Dems in congress even more wishy-washy and timid, and hurt their standing with the public even further.

Not to mention, if we do lose the House next year, then all bets are off for all of the President’s other delayed promises. There’s a real reason in politics why you strike when the iron is hot. We had the chance to do great things at the beginning of this year, and in a very real way, President Obama, who we supported heartily for election, blew it. And our congressional leadership hasn’t exactly been bold either. The president has been successfully reining them in. And look where it’s gotten them. It’s time for Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid to save their own jobs first.

Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Instagram | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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