Time/CNN polls show Obama leads in Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania




A poll fix from the morning. Today’s numbers from Time/CNN:

Obama leads McCain among likely voters by 51% to 47% in Ohio, a four point margin that has not budged since last week’s TIME’s survey. But he now leads McCain 52% to 45% in Nevada and by 52% to 46% in North Carolina, margins which are both slightly larger than those reported by TIME in its surveys a week earlier.

The new statewide surveys also show Obama leading McCain in Pennsylvania, the key blue state in which McCain is making a last-ditch, major push to score an upset, by a comfortable 12 point margin of 55% to 43%. But he still trails his Republican rival in McCain’s home state of Arizona by a seven-point margin of 46% to 53%.

The key now is turnout. That’s all that matters. Getting these voters to the polls.

The Muhlenberg tracking poll of Pennsylvania shows Obama with a thirteen point lead today: 54% – 51%. Yesterday, Obama had an 11 point lead in that poll:

The Muhlenberg daily tracking poll, which has surveyed likely Pennsylvania voters since late September, shows McCain with an uphill climb to victory in Pennsylvania, an outcome the campaign views as essential to his chances of winning the White House.

Obama leads McCain 53 percent to 42 percent in the state, a margin that has remained steady since the candidates’ last debate two weeks ago.

Chuck Todd finally found a Pennsylvania poll that confirms the McCain spin about Pennsylvania. Coincidentally, it is NBC’s poll, by Mason-Dixon, showing a 4-point race: 47% – 43%. On the Today Show this morning, Todd also reported that NBC’s poll of Arizona showed a 4 point lead for McCain: 48% – 44%. According to Todd, that means Pennsylvania is a “winnable” for McCain and a battleground. But, Arizona, with a 4-point lead for McCain (his home state where he’s not breaking 50%, which is considered deadly for an incumbent running state-wide at this point in the cycle), will be a “battleground state in four years.” Got that?

Also, CNN did a report this morning pondering whether we can trust the polls. That’s a new meme among the political reporters these days. They obsess over polls, talk about polls non-stop and spend a ton of money on polls. But, now, to keep the suspense, they don’t want us to believe those polls, which they report on endlessly.

Only five more days.

Here’s the Pollster.com trend for Pennsylvania, which includes NBC/Mason-Dixon:


On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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