China’s “soft landing” and other fantasyland stories

Maybe there is a modern example of a “soft landing” but nothing comes to mind in recent memory. Japan’s soft landing didn’t work out very well nor did the tech soft landing that was often touted and the same could be said about the real estate bubble which had been at the center of soft landing stories a few years ago. A bubble is a bubble. In the case of China, look at the neighbors who pumped money into China and who are toppling. Does anyone honestly think that a significant slowdown in factory production won’t cause painful problems? Of course there’s a local market but the economy is heavily geared towards exports and selling to buyers who have enough money (or credit) to buy goods.

China certainly has cash to invest in infrastructure and that’s really good news. (At least someone has the spare cash and is focusing on it.) Infrastructure development will be helpful but it is not going to prevent a hard landing after years of speculation, easy money and a troubled customer base who is not buying. Miracles can happen, but more often than not, those touting “soft landings” are proven wrong. Very wrong.

An American in Paris, France. BA in History & Political Science from Ohio State. Provided consulting services to US software startups, launching new business overseas that have both IPO’d and sold to well-known global software companies. Currently launching a new cloud-based startup. Full bio here.

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