Quinnipiac: In PA, Obama is “catching up”/Survey USA has Clinton up by

UPDATED: I should never write posts with just one poll. No sooner was this post up, when a new poll was released from SurveyUSA. In that poll, Clinton leads by 18 points: 56 – 38. Rasmussen Reports has the race at 48% – 43%.

Before you read this latest poll, remember, Pennsylvania is supposed to be a blowout for Hillary Clinton. Given the state’s demographics, she should win by a wide margin. She should. Okay, now read Quinnipiac’s latest Pennsylvania poll:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 – 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 – 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 – 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 – 41 percent for her today. A look at other groups shows:

* White voters for Clinton 56 – 38 percent, down from 59 – 34 percent last week.
* Black voters back Obama 75 – 17 percent, compared to 73 – 11 percent.
* Men are for Obama 48 – 44 percent, compared to a 46 – 46 percent tie last week.
* Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 – 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 – 38 percent.

One other thing while we’re on the subject of polls. Today, the New York Times profiled Geoff Garin, Clinton’s pollster. I can attest to the fact that Geoff Garin is very smart and tactical. He is a real Democrat and, basically, a very good guy. Geoff is no Mark Penn. He’s the polar opposite.


On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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