Five reasons Hillary should be worried




Hillary’s supporters are getting all bent out of shape in the comments on the blog because of the flurry of recent not-so-good news about Hillary’s campaign, and our reporting of it. Yes, well, we didn’t create the fact that her own campaign fed the perception of her candidacy as inevitable, that she would defeat Obama by yesterday, nor the fact, evident in poll after poll, that Obama has increasing momentum on his side as each day passes. We didn’t create the fact that in many states Edwards supporters seem to be flocking to Obama by a margin of 2-1 or greater. We didn’t create the fact that for the past 14 months Hillary has been ahead in Massachusetts, and just a few days ago she was expected to win by 11 points (this was a good week after Kennedy endorsed Obama), so that her winning the state last night wasn’t an upset, in spite of Chris Matthews’ claims to the contrary. Nor did we create the fact that Obama raised twice as much money as Hillary last month and now we find out she’s been forced to lend her own campaign $5 million.

Hillary’s campaign has fallen and it can’t get up, at least not yet. And while I’d like to think that AMERICAblog has the power to bring down a presidential frontrunner with a series of blog posts, her problems aren’t due to the analysis Joe and I bring to the issue.

Now take a look at the analysis of Hillary’s campaign woes by Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei. It reads like Joe wrote it. That’s because it’s what smart people are thinking after having read the tea leaves, rather than having drunk the Kool-Aid. Yeah, it sucks when your candidate isn’t doing so well. But it’s not our fault. And we’re not going to sugar-coat the news just because it hurts.

PS And another thing. Joe has been talking about how the upcoming primaries and caucuses look bad for Hillary. Well, read this, from AP:

Penn conceded the campaign would rely on surrogates to campaign for her in most of the states with contests Saturday, including former President Clinton and daughter Chelsea. It was a tacit admission that the former first lady was unlikely to win any of those states outright.

Privately, her strategists also have largely written off her chances of winning the so-called Potomac primary Feb. 9, given the large black populations in Virginia, Maryland and D.C. They also played down her chances in the following week’s major primaries — Hawaii, where Obama grew up, and Wisconsin, which has virtually sealed the nomination for other Democrats in years past.

Wisconsin’s Democratic electorate is largely liberal and college educated, and its open primary allows independents to vote — all factors that favor Obama.


CyberDisobedience on Substack | @aravosis | Facebook | Instagram | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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