Clinton campaign fears loss in NH and evidence grows of Obama’s bounce from Iowa

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton’s pollster/strategist Mark Penn told the world that Obama did not get a bounce in NH polls from Iowa. Given the polls that came out today, Penn is apparently the only person in politics who doesn’t see major movement towards Obama in New Hampshire, which was supposed to be the firewall state for the Clinton campaign. In fact, today, The Politico is reporting that anonymous Clinton staffers now believe they could lose in New Hampshire — and South Carolina on January 26th:

In Iowa, Clinton aides have said she drew levels of support that might have been enough to win in an ordinary year, but she was swamped in the stunning turnout produced by Obama’s popularity among young voters. While taking pains to insist in public that New Hampshire’s turnout model is very different from Iowa’s, Clinton’s aides say privately that they still fear a similar wave on Tuesday.

“It’s still possible to win or take a close second in New Hampshire, but if the turnout even begins to mirror what happened in Iowa, all bets are off,” said a Clinton adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The adviser added that the campaign has come to accept another reality of the early process, which is that African-American voters are convinced that Obama is viable and shifting rapidly in his direction.

“We’re going to lose South Carolina,” he said.

A slew of polls came out today which illustrate why the Clinton campaign is so concerned. Five that I could find. And, we are seeing serious movement for Obama. The latest numbers from New Hampshire after the jump.

The fall out from Obama’s victory in Iowa is becoming clear in the polls. New Hampshire voters are responding to him. And, as much as New Hampshire voters claim they aren’t influenced by Iowa, NH voters clearly are influenced by Iowa.

The CNN/WMUR poll out tonight shows Obama with a 10 point lead:

In the survey, conducted by the University of New Hampshire on Saturday and early Sunday, 39 percent of likely Granite State Democratic primary voters back Obama as the party’s nominee — that’s ten points ahead of Clinton’s 29 percent. Obama is up six points and Clinton down four points from our survey conducted on Friday and early Saturday.

Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina is at 16 percent in the new survey, down four points from Saturday. Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico is in fourth place, with the support of 7 percent of likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio at 2 percent.

Rasmussen Reports has Obama leading by twelve points:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire shows Barack Obama earning 39% of the vote while Hillary Clinton attracts 27%. The survey was conducted on Friday night and Saturday afternoon. All interviews were conducted after the Iowa caucuses and before last night’s debate.

Boston’s 7News/Suffolk University found Clinton in the lead, but with Obama moving fast:

In the Democratic Primary, Clinton (35 percent) leads Obama (33 percent), John Edwards (14 percent), Bill Richardson (5 percent), Dennis Kucinich (1 percent) and Mike Gravel (1 percent). Eleven percent were undecided.

Steady gain for Obama

“Barack Obama has cut a seventeen-point deficit to just two points today,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He’s done this in four days with no sign of a slowing trend.”

The McClatchy/MSNBC poll has Obama leading:

Obama now leads Clinton by a margin of 33-31 percent, thanks to an apparent surge of support the night after he won the Iowa caucuses. Given the poll’s margin of error, the numbers amount to a statistical tie. But that still marks a gain for Obama, who has trailed Clinton in New Hampshire for months.

The Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll also found the race is almost dead even — and, again showing serious movement for Obama:

Obama, an Illinois senator vying to be the first black president in U.S. history, pulled within one point of Clinton in the state’s Democratic race — a statistically insignificant lead. The poll in both races had a 3.4 percentage point margin of error.

Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady, led Obama 31 percent to 30 percent, with former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards at 20 percent. Before Iowa’s caucuses, Clinton led Obama by six points.

We’ll be seeing daily tracking polls til Tuesday. Primaries are much easier to poll then caucuses. The question in New Hampshire is where independents end up voting. As of now, NH is starting to look good for Obama. Very good.


On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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