Latest polls show Dems ahead in House, GOP in Senate

With less than 3 weeks to the midterm elections, there are a slew of new polls, and most show Democrats doing VERY well in the House, but slipping in the Senate.

And while I want Democrats to win both, at the very least we have to win the House, in order to stop Trump from legislating, and to give Democrats subpoena power. But the Senate is still a concern, as they confirm executive branch appointments and judges, so it still matters how much of a margin Republicans have in the Senate, even were they to hold on to their majority.

And legislatively, there’s some news. In the last day, GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell has said he wants to try to repeal Obamacare again, and cut Medicare and Social Security (incredibly, to pay for the failed Republican tax cuts, which now have cost $2.5 trillion), but he’s only going to move ahead depending how Republicans do in the election. So we must win in order to stop McConnell from implementing the Trump agenda.

GENERIC BALLOT

All recent polls show the public choosing Democrats over Republicans, generically, to run Congress. The numbers vary from Democrats +1 (which is Rasmussen, a Republican pollster that nobody respects) to Dems +13. The real range in trusted polls is Dems +5 to Dems +13. It’s generally accepted that Dems want to be at least +7 to +8 to take back the House. So we’re right in that range. But as always, it’s going to depend on turnout. And interesting poll earlier this week showed that with high turnout, Dems win the House. But with low turnout, Republicans wins the House by ONE SEAT. That’s how important turnout is.

I share these polls because I think it shows us that we CAN win — and that’s important for keeping Democratic enthusiasm up — but it will only happen if we turn out.

SENATE RACES

ND: Heidi Heitkamp is increasingly in danger of losing her seat, she’s significantly behind in the most recent poll. She is now the most endangered Democrat in the Senate. Trump won the state by 36 points in 2016, so it’s solid red. But, with a big enough Democratic wave, you never know. But Heitkamp is definitely in danger. Donate to Heitkamp here.

TX: Cook’s Political Report is still rating this race a toss-up, even though recent polls show Cruz with a decent lead over Democrat Beto O’Rourke. (Cruz is at 52% in the latest poll, and anything over 50% is considered safe for an incumbent.) Still, this is another race in which it’s going to matter, a lot, how big the Democratic wave is. Beto can still win this, but he’s probably behind at this point. Donate to Beto here.

MO: Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill is still in a tie race with Republican Trumpster Josh Hawley. They’ve been in a tie for a month now. Clearly Hawley is worried, as he’s now putting out a message — that’s a lie — claiming he supports protecting people with pre-existing conditions. In fact, as Missouri attorney general Hawley signed on to a lawsuit to overturn the ACA and kill its pre-existing conditions protections. This is a race where every dollar counts, so please Donate to McCaskill here.

NV: Incumbent GOP Senator Dean Heller has for months been the most endangered Republican in the Senate, but lately he’s been doing a little better in the polls. Rep. Jacky Rosen is the Democratic candidate, and while this race should have been an easy win for her, the latest polls all show Heller slightly ahead. Still, it’s only slightly. This one is still winnable, so please support Rosen here.

AZ: This is Jeff Flake’s seat (he’s retiring). Democratic US Rep. Kyrsten Sinema is running against GOP Rep. Martha McSally. This race is still basically a tie. Sinema has been ahead in all the recent polls, except the last one — and even that was within the margin of error. So this one is eminently winnable, and will likely go down based on the night overall — a good night for Dems likely means a good night for Sinema. Please chip into Sinema’s campaign here.

TN: The Senate race in Tennessee is also a nailbiter. Republican Marsha Blackburn has been ahead in all the recent polls, until now. In the latest poll, Democrat Phil Bredesen is up by 1 point. The average of polls still shows Blackburn ahead, but hopefully this latest poll means there’s still wiggle room in the electorate.

NJ: Democratic incumbent Senator Robert Menendez, who has been in some danger because of personal scandals, is still consistently up in the polls, with the latest poll just out showing Menendez ahead by 9.

HOUSE

NJ: Mikie Sherrill is ahead in the latest polls, all of them. Cook Political Report shows this as a “lean Dem” seat, while 538 says it’s “likely Dem.” Sherrill has a great opportunity to pick up this seat. Donate to Sherrill here.

CA: Harley Rouda remains tied with Putin-ally Dana Rohrabacher in CA 48th. This race isn’t getting as much attention, and perhaps it’s because Rohrabacher hasn’t been as in the news of late as he used to be. Old-timers like me know Rohrabacher all too well. He’s AWFUL. He’s not just a Putin ally, he’s the far right of the right. Just an awful Republican. The fact that he’s tied with his Democratic opponent is huge. We have to take this man down. Donate to Rouda here.

CA: This one’s a longshot, but a delicious longshot. Treason-weasel Devin Nunes is ahead of Democratic challenger Andrew Janz by 8 points, but with a big enough wave, Janz could surprise everyone. Donate to stop Nunes here.

We talk about a number of other latest polls in key House races in our recent podcast, you can hear the excerpt here.

That’s it for the latest polls. All in all, things are going well. But 3 weeks is a long time in politics, especially with Trump as president. So anything can happen, good or bad, to shake things up in the next 3 weeks. Keep fighting.


Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Instagram | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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