Argentina’s presidential election headed for a runoff

Argentina’s presidential election will almost certainly go to a a runoff, after the first round of voting failed to produce a clear winner.

With just over 77 percent of precincts reported, Change Together candidate Mauricio Macri is in a statistical tie with Front for Victory’s Daniel Scioli, with both holding just over 35 percent of the counted ballots. United for a New Alternative’s Sergio Massa looks like he may actually expand on his performance in the primary, and currently stands at just over 21 percent. These results represent a major surprise, as Scioli carried nearly 40 percent of the vote in the primary election held in August and was expected to emerge with a similar majority.

Mauricio Marci (left) and Daniel Scioli (right), via Wikimedia Commons

Mauricio Marci (left) and Daniel Scioli (right), via Wikimedia Commons

These results also amount to a major rebuke for outgoing president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her Front for Victory party, whose administration has been marred by scandal and economic stagnation. Not only did her preferred successor, Daniel Scioli, fail to secure the necessary 45 percent (or 40 percent with a ten point lead) plurality to avoid a runoff, but her party lost the election to succeed Scioli as governor of the Buenos Aires province. That province holds 37 percent of the country’s overall population.

Analysts expected many who supported Massa in the primary to defect to one of the two frontrunners — to Macri due to his opposition to the incumbent party, or to Scioli due to their parties’ common Peronist identity. While Macri looks like he picked up a fair share of voters who preferred minor party candidates in the primary, Massa maintained enough momentum throughout the campaign to hold on to his supporters and expand his anti-Kirchner, pro-Peronist base.

That the question is not whether Scioli will win by enough to avoid a runoff, but is rather whether he will eke out a narrow plurality win in the first place, should give Macri a major boost heading into the runoff campaign, which will be held on November 22nd.


Jon Green graduated from Kenyon College with a B.A. in Political Science and high honors in Political Cognition. He worked as a field organizer for Congressman Tom Perriello in 2010 and a Regional Field Director for President Obama's re-election campaign in 2012. Jon writes on a number of topics, but pays especially close attention to elections, religion and political cognition. Follow him on Twitter at @_Jon_Green, and on Google+. .

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  • sosotiredofbillperdue

    Calm down sweetums. You’re goin’ lose it again and the men with the big butterfly nets will have to come by and forcibly remedicate ya. So tell us hon, do they still have ya confined to that gawd awful retirement home for has-been Marxists down in Vegas?

    smootches,

  • Bill_Perdue

    People who support English racism are racists.
    People who oppose it are anti-racists.
    The English ruling classes are anti-democratic and so is the state that imitates the ugliness of English class society.

  • UKExpat

    All the countries cited above have had democratic referendums in order for their population to decide upon their governance. The results of the referendums were all enacted in accordance with the relevant populations declared wishes. This post is a perfect example of ignorant remarks made by an ignorant vindictive racist.

  • Bill_Perdue

    After the English are expelled from Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar, and the English Overseas Territories then those peoples can have the beginnings of democracy.

  • UKExpat

    Coffee time for Argentinians, quietly deport all Argentinians of European extraction and all war criminals, return all lands in Argentina annexed by genocide to the survivors of the ethnic tribes that were brutalized, fully compensate the families of disappeared in the dirty war and punish the perpetrators, laugh at pathetic machismo. etc. You have lots of places in Argentina, but I won’t cry for you because it is all your own fault

  • UKExpat

    OH is that so? Just as well do away with democracy while your at it!

  • britbob

    Ah socialism. Does it work?

  • britbob

    Their claim is based on ‘usurpation’ – it was legal to conquer another’s territory in the 19th century and inheritance from Spain under the customary law of uti possidetis juris which is only applicable to those states that opt in to use it to define borders and Britain, Brazil and France have never opted in to use it so it’s not applicable to the Falklands. https://www.academia.edu/10490336/Argentinas_Illegitimate_Sovereignty_Claims
    So, what is their legitimate sovereignty claim?

  • britbob

    Land of the free.

  • Indigo

    This is very interesting, it’s the first time I can recall having been able to follow a Latin American election in detail in English. I can see where the issues are but I have to confess I wasn’t aware of them before you started this series. Good job, Jon!

  • Indigo

    Tea time for the Anglophiles, quietly walk away, please. You have no place in the Americas.

  • goulo

    I note with amusement that I receive 3 times as many hits when I google ‘Argentina’s Legitimate Sovereignty Claims’. :)

  • Bill_Perdue

    Time for Argentina to retake the Malvinas from the English. Time for the English to get out of Ireland, Scotland, Gibraltar, and the other English British Overseas Territories.

  • britbob

    Time for Argentina to move on and drop the mythical Malvinas claim. Google: ‘Argentina’s Illegitimate Sovereignty Claims’ to see that Malvinas chestnut debunked.

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