One chart shows how badly the GOP hurt itself

HuffPost/Pollster has a chart showing the general congressional (House) poll over the past year or so. It shows how badly the GOP’s popularity dropped since this past July, and through most of the government shutdown.

The generic poll is the “would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat in your local congressional election?” question. It’s not proof of how any particular election is going to go, but it is a good barometer of general public sentiment vis-a-vis the two parties.

What the chart shows is that on November 18, 2012, Democrats were ahead of Republicans, 45.8% to 38.3%.

That lead dropped until July of this year, when it stagnated for a month, with Democrats only ahead of Republicans by half a point. Then, it takes off.

In the latest poll, from October 13, 2013, Democrats are ahead, 45% to 39.1%.

It took two and a half months for the Republicans to lose seven months of gains. ¬†(Well, not really “gains” per se. Rather, the Democrats spent seven months losing ground, and won it back in a little more than two months.)

And while the chart makes clears that things can change a lot in the year before the next election, it also makes clear that the Republicans are pretty much stuck at 39%.

While the Democratic numbers went up to nearly 46% last year, then down to 39%, then back to 45%, the entire time the GOP numbers remained stagnant. ¬†That seems to mean that there’s a middle ground that is undecided on Democrats, but has already made up its mind about Republicans, and it really doesn’t like them, no matter how bad Democrats are at any given moment.


Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Instagram | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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