Update: Corrected a misstatement in the conclusion.
This is a Quick Hits on climate change and global warming (click and read; it’s fast). To set the table:
▪ We’re at somewhere between 0.8°C and 1.0°C above the average temperature at which human civilization began and thrived.
▪ According to James Hansen, this degree of warming hasn’t been seen on earth since long before man existed (I’ll have that in a later post).
▪ World “leaders” seem to think that we can live comfortably in a +2°C world, and also that we have ever-so-much time to figure out how to Keep David Koch Rich while we “fix” this.
In that context, consider this story. The source of the information is the International Energy Agency, based in Paris. Note that the prediction is based on a do-nothing scenario, not an act-now scenario (my emphasis and paragraphing):
World set to exceed global warming limit: IEA
Global temperatures are on track to rise by more than double the two-degree Celsius warming goal set by the UN unless urgent measures are taken, the International Energy Agency warned Monday.
“The path we are currently on is more likely to result in a temperature increase of between 3.6 and 5.3 [degrees] C,” IEA chief Maria van der Hoeven said in presenting a new report on greenhouse gases.
The Paris-based agency urged governments to act, saying the [2°C] target could still be met with little economic pain. “Much more can be done to tackle energy-sector emissions without jeopardising economic growth, an important concern for many governments,” it said.
The IEA report was issued as nations gathered in Bonn for a second week of talks on forging a global pact to limit carbon emissions. It would be signed in late 2015 and take effect in 2020.
My personal climate model says we may have as little as a 5–10 year window [corrected] to make a drastic U-turn on carbon use before we’re on Easter Island and no new tree can grow in time to help us. So, “take effect in 2020″?
[Update: The first sentence of the paragraph above corrected to fix my careless phrasing. Five to ten years isn’t the largest window we have, it’s potentially the smallest. The window might be larger, but there’s no guarantee, especially at the rate we’re going — which is full speed ahead.]
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