Global Warming: We are halfway to a mass extinction event

UPDATE: This has been edited since first publication, and will continue to be revised until this sentence no longer appears. I’ve introduced mark-up in the charts, clarified the language and enhanced a number of explanations. This piece is part of a three-part set that together explains the climate crisis from “10,000 feet” — a very high-level view with the most basic elements explained for the interested lay reader.

The three parts of this set of posts are:

▪ The climate crisis in three easy charts — the view from 10,000 feet

 ▪ A closer look at global temperature, both before and during the age of man (this piece)

Climate crisis: Why we’re on track for 7°C warming or greater by 2100

Thanks for reading.
________

In the first piece in our “view from 10,000 feet” we looked at global temperatures from the earliest explosion of life on earth (during the Cambrian Period, some 540 million years ago), and noticed that the first big temperature spike in the early days of the Cambrian is a match for the temperature spike we could well see in 2100 under the “do nothing about carbon” scenario. The Cambrian temperature spikes reached 7°C (12½°F) above pre-industrial (pre-1800) norms, which is also where we could be headed if we don’t stop.

We also saw that the entire period of time from the Cambrian Period until now is divided into just three geologic eras, or major divisions …

The Paleozoic Era — the era of life before the Age of Reptiles, 540–250 million years ago
The Mesozoic Era — the Age of Reptiles, 250–65 million years ago
The Cenozoic Era — the Age of Mammals, which we’re now in

… and that each of the first two eras ended in a major mass extinction event. Will a mass extinction end the Cenozoic Era, the Age of Mammals? If the earth warms enough, yes. This piece explains why and looks at the broad consequences for man under a couple of warming scenarios.

What does “major mass extinction” mean?

In order to discuss global warming and mass extinction, we need to look at mass extinctions in general to get a sense of the scale of these events and their effect.

Consider again the chart of extinctions since the Cambrian, 540 million years ago. (This chart was also presented here; source here.) The labels across the top — “Cm” and so on — are geologic “periods”. For your convenience I’ve added the larger divisions, the three geologic eras as well, and indicated where the current geologic period, the Quaternary, fits in.

Mass_Extinction_500px-Extinction_intensity.svg_5_marked-up

“Extinction intensity” on the Y axis measures only marine extinctions. That’s for apples-to-apples comparison across the chart, since land plants evolved later, roughly 475 million years ago, and amphibians later still, roughly 375 million years ago. “Extinction intensity” doesn’t measure all species extinct, just countable ones based on the fossil record, but it’s still an excellent measure for showing the relative scale of these disasters.

As you can see, only a handful of mass extinctions grew to real size. The biggest one by far is between the Paleozoic and Mesozoic eras — at the Permian-Triassic boundary (between “P” and “Tr” above). That extinction is called the Great Dying, since over 90% of all marine species and 70% of land vertebrate species died out. It not only ended the Permian, it ended the whole Paleozoic Era.

There’s another major extinction at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary (between “K” and “Pg” above) in which half of all species went extinct. That extinction ended the Mesozoic Era, the Age of Reptiles. There aren’t many spikes of that intensity on the chart.

If James Hansen is right (see below), we’re about to create another one, an event that could kill off up to 50% of currently living species. Will that event end the Age of Mammals? That depends on the temperature that triggers extinctions, and also on what temperature the earth finally heats to before global warming levels off.

Let’s start with temperature and extinctions.

What temperature increase will trigger the next mass extinction?

This is a key question — what warming increase will trigger an extinction on the scale of those on the chart?

We know that global warming will cause some crises, since the warming we’ve experienced so far (0.8°C or so) is already a problem. But according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading scientific organization studying this phenomenon, this is only the beginning of the warming we’re headed for. What temperature we should stop at if we don’t want to trigger another world-class extinction?

We also want to know the effect of these increased temperatures on man. As we showed in this post, the transition of homo sapiens from 200,000 years of hunter-gatherer life to what we call “civilization,” which occurred 12,000 years ago, coincides exactly with the stabilization of global temperature to its current narrow range.

To see that dramatically, look at the chart below. To see this chart full-size, click the image. To see the full-size unmodified original, click here; it’s large and interesting. (The chart was originally presented and discussed here.)

Earth_tem_All_palaeotemps_mark-up_2

First at the left, notice the large orange temperature spikes. The biggest one, at the extreme left, reaches 7°C (or 12½°F) above the Y axis zero mark, the post-civilization, pre–Industrial Revolution “norm” shown at the right end.

Then look almost all the way to the right, at the 12,000-years-ago mark. That’s the start of the Holocene, “today” in geologic time. In the Holocene, Earth comes out of its last great ice age (an epoch called the Pleistocene) and global temperatures stabilize, going from about 1°C below the pre-industrial norm to almost flat, holding roughly in the range ±0.5°C. (To zoom in on just the Holocene temperatures, from 12,000 years ago until now, click here. The black line in both charts, this one and the linked Holocene chart, shows the average of eight regional temperature records.)

The flattening of global temperature in the last 10,000 years is remarkable. It also coincides exactly with civilized man, man emerging from hunter-gatherer status to build villages and farm land. It would be nice to keep the earth in that range, right?

Which brings us to James Hansen, head of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York City and a leading American researcher in this field. He’s been working on the problems of global warming and climate crisis since the 1980s (our discussion of Hansen’s earlier work is here.)

Hansen recently published a paper called Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice (pdf), then authored several op-ed columns based on its conclusions. He thinks he has found the temperature number we’re looking for, the global warming increase that leads to a sizable mass extinction event. In his conclusion, he says this (my emphasis and paragraphing):

Although species migrate to stay within climate zones in which they can survive, continued climate shift at the rate of the past three decades is expected to take an enormous toll on planetary life.

If global warming approaches 3°C by the end of the century, it is estimated that 21-52% of the species on Earth will be committed to extinction (3). Fortunately, scenarios are also possible in which such large warming is avoided by placing a rising price on carbon emissions that moves the world to a clean energy future fast enough to limit further global warming to several tenths of a degree Celsius (29). Such a scenario is needed if we are to preserve life as we know it.

See the paper itself for the references. Footnote (3) refers to Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, volume 1 of the IPCC Assessment Report 4, the most recent assessment report from that group. You can read sections of IPCC AR4 or download the PDF here.

Hansen’s follow-up op-ed in the New York Times was just as stark (again, my emphasis and some reparagraphing):

Game Over for the Climate

… Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire history. If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet higher than it is now.

That level of heat-trapping gases would assure that the disintegration of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control. Sea levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to 50 percent of the planet’s species would be driven to extinction. Civilization would be at risk.

What Hansen is saying is what our chart above also says — that global warming of 3°C (5½°F) hasn’t been seen since the early Cenozoic, millions of years before the dawn of man. Check for yourself. Look at the second chart above, starting from the right edge (“now”), and trace back to the last time the earth was +3°C above our current temperature. It looks like over 10 million years ago to me, long before any species of man evolved.

Hansen also says +3°C — whenever it arrives — is a sure mass extinction point, potentially the start of a new geologic era. Hansen has since published other papers that indicate even +2°C could be too high. We’ll look at those papers later in this series. For now though, we can take +3°C as “game over.”

Why staying below 3°C global warming matters

We need to keep James Hansen’s 3°C warming number in mind in mind for two reasons. The first is that even if we stop global warming at “just” 3°C, it’s a disaster. Imagine living in a world in which the earth is so warm that 20–50% of species are going extinct. Imagine the chaos, the death from disease, starvation, drought, population migration and war. Now imagine that this all happens within the next 90 years. The compression is stunning.

And we’re halfway there if you count the warming that’s in the pipeline, inevitable — the warming that’s unavoidable as ice sheets continue to melt, summer arctic ice shrinks to nothing, summer oceans absorb the sun’s rays instead of reflecting it, and permafrost releases its frozen-for-millenia methane, also a greenhouse gas.

There’s no stopping the certain degree of roughness, of climate dislocation and crisis, we’ve already made for ourselves. Global warming is at 0.8°C now and headed inevitably for 1.5°C. There’s a great deal of consensus around that number as the minimum that’s inevitable. This is why world “leaders” want to stop at 2°C; they know stopping at any lower number is a lost cause.

In fact, if there’s disagreement at all among the unbought professionals in this field, it’s that some scientists now think our chance of keeping global temperatures below 2°C is already unlikely. Who will be proven right? I don’t know, but every time I look at the headlines, things are happening faster than anyone expected.

So the first bottom line for today is this. If you accept that …

1. Scientists are cautious and conservative in their estimates by nature
2. Events have been moving faster than predicted
3. This is one disaster no one should be tempted to flirt with

… we’d be foolish not to heed Hansen’s warning. A 3°C warmer world by 2100 would be hell to manage.

Eventually we might be able to set up enclaves near the Arctic circle and preserve something that looks like civilization — some farming, some energy production, some manufacturing. But what are the human population numbers at that point, and what does the coming century look like during that transition? It won’t be a world anyone wants to live in.

Yes, a 3°C warmer world would be a challenge to say the least. But there’s a second bottom line for today that’s even more stark, and presents an even stronger reason to put on the carbon brakes now.

If we go to 3°C warmer, we may go to 7°C or beyond

For a reason I’ll discuss next time, if global warming is man-made — and few unbought scientists think otherwise — then 3°C warming may well be just the halfway point to the full disaster. By that I mean, because of the way the socio-political process works, the “never stop burning carbon” scenario could easily take us right past 3°C to a 7°C (12½°F) warmer world — in the worst case, by 2100 — and perhaps beyond.

That’s double the compression of Hansen’s 3°C scenario — it means 3°C warmer by the mid-2050s and 7°C warmer by the end of the century. The discussion of that outcome is also in the IPCC literature, the same literature Hansen used to make his mass-extinction prediction. This is their own worst-case scenario. It’s not a prediction, but it’s one of the possibilities. Yikes.

For a look at times when the earth was as hot as 7°C above pre-Industrial norms, you have to look at the Mesozoic Era and earlier (again, see the second chart above). In a 7°C warmer world, I’m not sure we’re a species. I’m not sure what it would take to exist even in the ice-free Arctic, much less live in a “civilized” way. I’ll expand that consideration next time.

So the second bottom line is this — If mankind’s carbon is driving the warming process, the process doesn’t stop until man does.

Man will stop spewing carbon (a) by intention, (b) by most of us going pre-industrial, or (c) by drastically reducing our population, perhaps to zero. When one of those three things is true and when all of the warming after-effects in the pipeline play out, global temperature will level off. Not before. Will that level-off point be after 2°C warming? After 3°C warming? After 7°C warming? If we don’t stop after +3°C, how will we ever stop?

Stopping at 2°C will take intention. The other stopping points imply an out-of-control process. We’ll look that aspect shortly. But for today, consider that it’s entirely possible that when 3°C warming is present, 7°C is in the pipeline, inevitable, thanks to the chaos caused by a +3°C world. If a 3°C warmer world doesn’t mark a new geologic era, 7°C warmer certainly will. Man as a species might survive a transition to the first. We won’t survive a transition to the second.

Why consider these scenarios?

I’m writing this series for just one reason — we can put ourselves on a different path whenever we want to. But we have to want to. So if you’re feeling some panic right now, good. When enough of us feel that panic, we’re halfway home. We just have to ”hug the monster” and act. We have control.

To help us, world-wide resistance is coming, and that’s a good thing. In addition, the climate is making its own case. Last summer was all Arctic-ice news for more than a month. Expect more of the same this summer. The will to act can only get stronger. This isn’t hopeless, just very important.

The next big test in the U.S. is the Keystone Pipeline, by the way. To see how the resistance to warming is building, watch the resistance to Keystone.

GP

To follow or send links: @Gaius_Publius


Gaius Publius is a professional writer living on the West Coast of the United States. Click here for more. Follow him on Twitter @Gaius_Publius and Facebook.

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  • Clark Magnuson

    If you believe in global warming, peak oil, or government debt meltdown, you are paranoid.

  • http://www.nomadz.net JetSetter

    I just published a comedy-thriller that deals with mass extinction, if anyone’s interested? http://www.amazon.com/Endangered-Species-Diary-Eco-Warrior-ebook/dp/B00BEAX38G

  • http://parkandbark.wordpress.com/ Houndentenor

    We’re screwed.

  • cole3244

    there are so few humans intelligent enough or morally interested enough to absorb what is happening to make our species worth saving, and the earth will discard those that are destroying its habitat as it has done for millenniums, good for earth and pay back for us.

  • Bill_Perdue

    Ditto.

  • Bill_Perdue

    We’ll get our first 100 degree weather next week in Las Vegas.

  • Bill_Perdue

    Never, under any circumstances, vote for Democrats or Republicans and help build a massive movement to save the environment.

  • Bill_Perdue

    When Obama attended the Copenhagen environmental conference in 2009 he did Chicago useful. Instead, arrogantly defying the needs of people everywhere for a livable environment he spent his time lobbying to have Chicago be the sight of the Olympics.

  • Bill_Perdue

    I agree but it’s not going to happen.

    The Democrats are a party owned by big business as are their cousins. They’re the cause of environmental degradation throughout much of Central and North America. Their leader Bill Clinton championed and signed NAFTA (as well as DADT, DOMA and the deregulation bills of 1999 and 2000). Keystone XL Pipeline belongs to big business, Clinton and Obama.

    “NASA scientist James Hansen famously warned that if the Keystone XL pipeline gets built, it’s “game over” for the climate. That dire warning lit a fire under the feet of activists, who rightly argue that Canada shouldn’t be producing the dirty, carbon-intensive tar sands oil, and the U.S. shouldn’t enable the climate destruction by building a pipeline to get the oil out of North America. “ http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/03/21/1195980/-The-Keystone-XL-Pipeline-Game-Over

  • mucholderguy

    Scientists? Elitists! Facts? Bor-ing! This global warming is just a myth made up by librils trying to make me stop driving and take public transportation. They want me to ride the shame train with the poors! Besides, scientists disagree. I saw it on the teevee!

  • evil is evil

    Do not isolate the climate catastrophe from the poisoning of the land, water and air with chemicals.

    Please Google “New Jersey” + “umbilical cords” + “chemicals.”

    The children in New Jersey are already poisoned with commercial chemicals at birth. No one know the effects on the genetic material of this poisoning, but the descendants of the men poisoned with “gas” in WWI show an extreme number of genetic abnormalities.

    Any “human” survivors will have a 100 percent chance of being monsters according to current views.

  • Naja pallida

    I’m almost of the belief that we’re putting too many eggs in the Keystone XL basket. Whether that pipeline is built or not, the oil is coming out of the ground. There’s already pipeline from the tar sands to the Great Lakes, and to the Pacific Ocean. So that oil is going to get to market, whether the Keystone XL is completed or not. The Keystone XL might speed things up some, but we need to be thinking a couple more steps ahead, and just assume that oil is going to get refined and used, regardless. So what do we do in that circumstance?

  • http://libertyviewmagazine.net/ Tod Westlake

    Thanks.

  • http://adgitadiaries.com/ karmanot

    We can sense it. It’s early May here in Northern California and all the Summer plants are in full bloom.

  • GaiusPublius
  • http://libertyviewmagazine.net/ Tod Westlake

    By the way, it’s only a matter of time before those numbers are revised upward, as they have been with every past study. People simply have no idea what’s coming.

  • http://libertyviewmagazine.net/ Tod Westlake

    My pleasure, sort of.

  • GaiusPublius

    Thanks, Tod. I saw that study and dl’ed the PDF. I’ll be using them along with the IPCC scenarios in the next (or so) post, the one that deals with the likely outcomes more closely. Thanks for the link, and thanks for caring about this stuff.

    GP

  • GaiusPublius

    Don’t worry about the research. I’m deep into IPCC reports now. I can only go so far so fast, and I don’t want to stop writing until I get it all down pat.

    So here’s what I know. “In the pipeline” means all of what you mention — trapped heat, yes, but also future effects like methane release, heat absorption in the arctic b/c of no reflective ice, all of that. It’s rolled into that 1.5°C (or more) prediction that I see everywhere. FWIW, I had the opportunity to speak with Michael Mann last year, and he said he thought we’d actually achieved 1.0°C, but agreed with the 1.5°C inevitability figure. That was last summer.

    So don’t worry. I’m deep into this stuff. My goal is to get it right, and then make the info accessible. Hope I’m accomplishing both.

    GP

  • Hue-Man

    Just to prove that the U.S. doesn’t have the monopoly on deranged far-right politicians:
    “Canada’s natural resources minister, Joe Oliver, rarely bothers to hide his dislike for critics of the country’s carbon-heavy tar sands or the controversial Keystone XL pipeline.

    But it still came as a surprise to hear Oliver lash out at one of America’s pre-eminent scientists, climatologist James Hansen, during a visit to Washington DC.

    Oliver was in Washington on one of the now-frequent visits by Canadian politicians to try to build support for the pipeline.

    The charm offensive evidently did not apply to Hansen. In remarks made at a Washington thinktank, Oliver said Hansen should be “ashamed” of his opposition to the Keystone XL pipeline, and for warning that exploitation of the carbon-heavy tar sands would drive climate change past a point of no return.” http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/apr/24/canada-joe-oliver-attack-james-hansen

    Yesterday, he had to walk back his threatened trade war with the European Union, perhaps because negotiation of a Canada-EU Free Trade Agreement is reportedly 99% complete!

    “On Wednesday in Brussels, Mr. Oliver said Canada would consider filing a complaint with the World Trade Organization, the global referee for trade disputes, if the EU proceeds with its so called fuel-quality directive which singles out crude from Canada’s oil sands as the most
    harmful to the planet’s climate.” http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/joe-oliver-backs-away-from-threat-of-eu-trade-battle/article11813534/

    The Conservative hardball tactics have rarely been seen in Canadian politics: muzzle government scientists, scrap environmental protection laws and regulations, threaten charities with de-registration if they oppose Tar Sands development, “with me or against me” rhetoric for any poltician who expresses mild environmental concerns, and to shut up anyone with questions – “Comment on changes to Enbridge’s Toronto pipeline now requires NEB [National Energy Board] permission” http://www.thestar.com/business/2013/04/09/comment_on_changes_to_enbridges_toronto_pipeline_now_requires_neb_permission.html

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Patrick-Towey/1211046469 Patrick Towey

    Yes, but what else can we do?

  • Indigo

    I’m not aware of President Obama responding to pressures other than the usual Wall Street wishes.

  • Indigo

    Given the embedded consumerist social structure we live in, I’m doubtful that anything is going to happen to shift the balance in time. What is more likely is a systematic triage of the population, culling out those who are not “like us” as the very labor and resource intensive projects get underway to construct the underground cities where the privileged will live by the the 22nd century arrives. As for the culled, they’ll have sections of the surface for their use, such as it is.

  • http://twitter.com/DrDignity Damiano de Sano Ioco

    Salve, Gaius! Another wonderful article! The positive feedback loops after 1 degree C rise will be non-linear & unpredictable: permafrost melts with methane & C02 airborne, more C02 from warmer soils, uncontrollable forest fires, increased albedo effects at the poles, plant & animal decomposition in anoxic seas producing hydrogen sulphide which is the extinction event. Damiano

  • http://www.runawaydaily.com/ Floyd Earl Smith

    Oops – according to this article, research into past temperatures shows that 400ppm of CO2 – which we hit yesterday – means that temperatures are likely to rise 8C and sea levels by 40M. The unknown is 1) are there any differences with today that will help us and 2) how fast it will happen. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/may/09/meteorite-crater-global-warming

  • http://adgitadiaries.com/ karmanot

    Excellent work Gaius.

  • http://www.runawaydaily.com/ Floyd Earl Smith

    Hey Gaius, I really appreciate your pulling this together. Well done, and very useful. However, there is something you’ve missed. The 0.7C of warming “in the pipeline” is heat that’s already in the deep oceans that hasn’t yet percolated into the narrow zone where surface temperatures are measured and where people live. It does NOT reflect loss of sea ice, disappearing forests, permafrost melt etc.
    Instead, those are the feedbacks that take us from 2C to 7C – even if we people stopped emitting CO2 and cutting down forests the day we reached the 2C point.
    My own understanding of the science is that an increase of 5-7C this century is inevitable, even if we stopped emitting today. And my understanding of “the politics” – that is, the decisions we humans are likely to make – is that we’ll keep emitting enough to get ourselves to 3-4C of increase even if those natural feedbacks didn’t exist.
    So please do some more research and take what you learn into consideration – and, keep going!

  • http://www.facebook.com/tony.tyner1 Tony Tyner

    Probably the best thing that could happen to the planet.

  • http://libertyviewmagazine.net/ Tod Westlake

    Three degrees Celsius is a rather sanguine prediction. MIT’s 2009 study says, with a 90-percent certainty, that it’ll be something between 3.5 and 7.4 degrees, so, you know, game over.

    http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2009/roulette-0519.html

  • pappyvet

    It could be that we are too late . But I am confidant that the Earth will do whatever is needed to correct itself. Even if that means emerging disease,rising sea levels ,and the removing either part or whole,of a particularly troublesome tenant .

  • basenjilover

    Obama doesn’t give a f**** nor he cares. Obama is a full fledged CORPORATIST! We can protest til we’re blue in face… he’ll just laugh all the way to the offshore banks with cash from corporations.

  • Just_AC

    I have often thought that the only hope for mankind is beyond this planet

    If I was the tyrannical dictator of the world we would already have a vibrant offplanet existence.

    Alas, it may be too late

  • nicho

    Among a lot of other things.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Patrick-Towey/1211046469 Patrick Towey

    Then we need to pressure president Obama to not approve the Keystone XL pipeline.

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