The earth’s average temperature is set to increase 9°F (5°C) by 2100.
And if we get to that point — not the point where the 9°F (5°C) increase has arrived, but the point where that increase is inevitable, in the pipeline — it’s truly over. As I’ve been detailing, we’re looking at population and social collapse. By that I mean, human population count will collapse, and human society will collapse.
And they’ll collapse a lot earlier than 9°F (5°C). If we get to 5.6°F (3°C), there’s no stopping the rest of the increase, since we will have lost control of the process. The process will end when human numbers and human industrial activity are so low that no further increase is possible. At that point, what’s in the pipeline plays out — which as almost all data suggests, is somewhere around the headline global warming number of 9°F (5°C), perhaps one or two degrees (C) higher.
For reference, we’re probably staring at an inevitable 2.5°C increase right now. Still time, but not much.
Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are rising annually by around three percent, placing Earth on track for warming that could breach five degrees Celsius (9.0 degrees Fahrhenheit) by 2100, a new study published on Sunday said. The figure — among the most alarming of the latest forecasts by climate scientists — is at least double the 2C (3.6F) target set by UN members struggling for a global deal on climate change. …
“We are on track for the highest emissions projections, which point to a rise in temperature of between 4C (7.2F) and 6C (10.8F) by the end of the century,” said Corinne le Quere, a carbon specialist at the University of East Anglia, eastern England. “The estimate is based on growth trends that seem likely to last,” she said in a phone interview, pointing to the mounting consumption of coal by emerging giants.
Other research has warned of potentially catastrophic impacts from a temperature rise of this kind.
The source is research published in the journal Nature Climate Change by the Global Carbon Project consortium. About that report, the article states: “The temperature projections by the Global Carbon Project are at the top end of forecasts published by scientists ahead of the UNFCCC talks taking place in Doha, Qatar.”
The article places blame on emerging countries, but even absent their single-minded selfishness, it will take a monumental (and monumentally disruptive) effort by first-world nations as well (including and especially the U.S.) to stop this.
After all, what’s blocking the U.S. is David Koch, Rex Tillerson, and their ilk. Not small potatoes on the local front. Think they’re going to give up all the profit from all that “drill baby drill” propaganda? (Think Obama’s going to deny approval of the Keystone Sludge Pipe?)
This is the first of two climate posts I’ll do. The second contains a block-buster number — it will take more than $1,000 trillion to hold the damage to what’s already in the pipeline. That’s if we start today. Every day we delay, the number in the pipeline goes up, and so does the cost of holding at that point, since the need for speed also increases.
Remember, what’s in the pipeline is what counts — since what’s in the pipeline is what’s inevitable. As I’ve said many times, including in the third paragraph above, when James Hansen’s 3°C (5.6°F) ”mass extinction” number is in the pipeline, it’s over.
We’re facing some interesting choices, folks. In fact, this one choice pretty well moots most of the other deadlines the nation faces. Total collapse of the middle class by a political class owned entirely by money? I think the climate will take that worry of everyone’s mind sometime in the next five years (see my personal climate model for the timing).
Unless we get cracking. To do that, though, we have to get truly serious, hug the monster, and act. My start is here — The Climate Criminals project: A five-pronged approach to climate solution. More soon, including some action opportunities.
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