Romney 7.8% chance to win, Obama 92.2%

Who is going to Win the Election? Obama

I hate to jinx it, but I may have to post my “Wicked Witch of the West melting” video early.

Nate Silver of 538.com/NYT has upped President Obama’s percentage chance of winning tomorrow to 92.2%.  Mitt Romney is only given a 7.8% chance of winning.  The Huffington Post/Pollster.com model also predicts the President having a 90% chance of victory on Tuesday (more on that below).

Now “never say never,” and turnout always matters – especially having enough turnout to beat any GOP efforts to steal the election.  But 92.2%.  Damn.

Source: 538.com/NYT.

The Auto Bailout Helped the President in the Key State of Ohio

Nate says Ohio is key to the President’s victory, and the auto bailout is key to why the President will likely win Ohio:

[P]olls show Mr. Obama leading Mitt Romney in Ohio by about three percentage points, one point better than Mr. Obama’s projected national margin, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The auto rescue’s impact on Ohio’s political preferences, though modest, has been decisive.

“The auto rescue is popular in Ohio,” Mr. Beck said, and because the Buckeye State was only slightly Republican-leaning, a small shift appears to have tipped the state’s partisan balance.

Moreover, the auto rescue and Ohio’s steadily falling unemployment rate appear to have improved Mr. Obama’s standing with the very demographic group that Mr. Romney might have made inroads with: white working-class voters.

Nate gives the President an 85% chance of winning Ohio.

The Huffington Post/Pollster.com model predicts that the President has a 90% chance of winning.

Here’s how HuffPo sees the key states:

Source: Huffington Post/Pollster.com

I checked out NBC’s Chuck Todd’s latest too (I like him), and he had some interesting things to watch for as the polls close.

A Lot of Key States Will Be Decided Before 9pm Eastern

First, Todd says that we’re going to look a lot before the 9 o’clock (Eastern) hour, when polls close in NH, PA, OH, VA, NC, and FL.

Source: Chuck Todd, NBC

An interesting observation from Todd – two different things to look out for that will tell you the President is having a good evening.

A) That VA, NC or FL are too close to call.
B) That PA and OH are called quickly for Obama.

Source: Chuck Todd, NBC


Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Instagram | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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