Romney 7.8% chance to win, Obama 92.2%

11/5/2012 10:51pm by 44

Who is going to Win the Election? Obama

I hate to jinx it, but I may have to post my “Wicked Witch of the West melting” video early.

Nate Silver of 538.com/NYT has upped President Obama’s percentage chance of winning tomorrow to 92.2%.  Mitt Romney is only given a 7.8% chance of winning.  The Huffington Post/Pollster.com model also predicts the President having a 90% chance of victory on Tuesday (more on that below).

Now “never say never,” and turnout always matters – especially having enough turnout to beat any GOP efforts to steal the election.  But 92.2%.  Damn.

Source: 538.com/NYT.

The Auto Bailout Helped the President in the Key State of Ohio

Nate says Ohio is key to the President’s victory, and the auto bailout is key to why the President will likely win Ohio:

[P]olls show Mr. Obama leading Mitt Romney in Ohio by about three percentage points, one point better than Mr. Obama’s projected national margin, according to the current FiveThirtyEight forecast. The auto rescue’s impact on Ohio’s political preferences, though modest, has been decisive.

“The auto rescue is popular in Ohio,” Mr. Beck said, and because the Buckeye State was only slightly Republican-leaning, a small shift appears to have tipped the state’s partisan balance.

Moreover, the auto rescue and Ohio’s steadily falling unemployment rate appear to have improved Mr. Obama’s standing with the very demographic group that Mr. Romney might have made inroads with: white working-class voters.

Nate gives the President an 85% chance of winning Ohio.

The Huffington Post/Pollster.com model predicts that the President has a 90% chance of winning.

Here’s how HuffPo sees the key states:

Source: Huffington Post/Pollster.com

I checked out NBC’s Chuck Todd’s latest too (I like him), and he had some interesting things to watch for as the polls close.

A Lot of Key States Will Be Decided Before 9pm Eastern

First, Todd says that we’re going to look a lot before the 9 o’clock (Eastern) hour, when polls close in NH, PA, OH, VA, NC, and FL.

Source: Chuck Todd, NBC

An interesting observation from Todd – two different things to look out for that will tell you the President is having a good evening.

A) That VA, NC or FL are too close to call.
B) That PA and OH are called quickly for Obama.

Source: Chuck Todd, NBC

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@aravosis | Facebook | Google+. Editor of AMERICAblog, joint JD/MSFS from Georgetown, worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, and as a stringer for the Economist. A frequent TV pundit, he has been on The O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline & Reliable Sources. Full bio and .

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  • http://www.facebook.com/carolyn.gray.31 Carolyn Gray

    CNN is highlighting that there was a TIE in Dixon Notch, NH which is true. (they vote at midnight).  BUT they are not highlighting that another city in NH that votes at midnight shows an Obama win at 23 to 9.  I’ll take any little sign that Obama is winning :) as a good sign.

    • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

      CNN became Faux News Lite years ago, but most of all I’ve noticed that ever since around 2000, their whole news philosophy is built around the manufacturing of phony breathless uncertainty stories designed entirely to keep you tuned to their station.

  • Ernestluera

    good job oboma  win      mitt romney  dick

  • Focus23

    The momentum is with Romney. i.e. the hard work, passion  and focus from the volunteers on Get out the Vote. Nate Silver model assumes that he is getting good polling data.. Assuming that there is 7 to 11% more democrats than Republicans in the Battle Ground states & the nation is a wrong assumption in all the polls. Poor Nate’s model takes Garbage in and spit out Garbage out.   Remember John Kerry was declared winner by MSM but only to learn that he lost in the thick of the night.. Truman was declared the loser .. I pity everyone putting full faith on Nate’s model.  Still as long as the model does not say 0% Romney , even after a decisive landslide from Romney, Nate will say that he has been right – as he has predicted over 7% chance of winning for Romney.

  • Indigo

    Dewey wins!

  • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

    First, it’s worth remembering that Nate Silver’s statistical analysis models always trend towards 100% the closer we get to election day. And setting aside my serious concerns about the integrity of our voting system in at least two crucial swing states, there is also the fact that Nate got 50 out of 51 races right in 2008, and almost always within a fraction of a percent of the result. The only one he didn’t predict correctly was Indiana, which he put in the McCain column, but it went for Obama by 1%. He also nailed every single Senate race.

    In 2010, out of 37 Senate seats, he correctly predicted 34, but his error rate was such that he was off by only one in terms of the party change. In 37 governor races, he correctly predicted 36 of the results, and although he was on the low side in terms of House GOP gains (he predicted 55, and they actually gained 63) it was still within the confidence interval.

    At this point, I trust his numbers. What’s interesting is at this late hour, he’s thrown Florida back onto the slight-Obama-lean tossup category.

    • silas1898

       Maybe enough people in Florida have heard enough of the “abolish FEMA” rhetoric to flip the state Blue.

      It’s been 20 years since Hurricane Andrew helped take down Bush I and the party still doesn’t get it.

    • Focus23

      The momentum is with Romney’s team . i.e. the hard work, passion  and focus from the volunteers on Get out the Vote. Nate Silver model assumes that he is getting good polling data.. Assuming that there is 7 to 11% more democrats than Republicans in the Battle Ground states & the nation,  is a wrong assumption in all the polls. Poor Nate’s model takes Garbage in and spit out Garbage out.   Remember John Kerry was declared winner by MSM but only to learn that he lost in the thick of the night.. Truman was declared the loser .. I pity everyone putting full faith on Nate’s model.  Still as long as the model does not say 0% Romney win, even after a decisive landslide from Romney, your poll projection God Nate will say that he has been right – as he has given Romney more than 10% chance of winning .. 

      • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

        Let me guess: You didn’t take any statistical analysis courses in college, did you?

        • Naja pallida

          Thanks. I was trying to think of a logical response, but I think yours summed it up just fine. :)

        • Dave of the Jungle

          Rudimentary knowledge always helps.

  • Dave of the Jungle

    I call on the Republican Party to disband.

    • A reader in Colorado

      Ok, good plan.  They won’t.  What are ya gonna do now?  ;)

      • FLL

        I’m pretty sure the comment you’re replying to is humorous, not serious. You’re reply,  however, assumes the comment is serious, and the tone of your reply is just so… delighted. Delighted that we’re all so powerless to stop the big, bad Republicans. “What are ya gonna do now?” You may as well have added “Nyah-nyah-nyah.” And the jolly emoticon is a nice touch. Um… I think your third-party mask is slipping. Your tipping your hand, and people can see your cards.

        • A reader in Colorado

          No, my “humorous response” is because the Democratic Party has no interest in actually defeating or disbanding the Republican Party.  They are needed to be the Democrats’ evil boogeyman doll, every two years, doncha know.

          The Tea Party is the Democrats’ best friend.  Democrats wouldn’t even know what to do with themselves if they truly drove the Republicans out of office.

          • Papa Bear

            they’d do what the Republicans did when they were in the same situation: they split into two Republican Parties and one of them became the Democratic Party (which has slowly morphed back into the Republican Party, but that’s another story)…

    • johncAtl

      I think it’s more likely they’ll implode if Romney loses and the Democrats retain control of the Senate. The tea-party types will feel they didn’t go conservative enough, and the old-time Republicans will be wondering how they spent over a billion dollars to buy the government they wanted and they didn’t get it.

  • hollywoodstein

    Drink!  I mean get outthe ovite then dwrink.

    • A reader in Colorado

      Wait till Tuesday evening.  Many people will be drinking then. 

      • hollywoodstein

        Why wait?

        • A reader in Colorado

          Because you’ll have more company?  Anyway, you have me now.  Kiss?

  • A reader in Colorado

    My prediction is as it has been:

    281-257 Obama, with the entire country looking like a patchwork quilt except New Mexico.

    I calculate things based on regional affilliation, plus the polls and the general direction of the election.  That, all things being equal, regional history voting and general regional affiliation dominate unless there is a very strong force against it.

    So, Obama wins OR, NV, IA, WI, PA, NH, and, critically, OH.  I give Obama NH because of northeast regional affiliation.  

    I give Romney CO, VA, NC, FL, because those states are part of a regional pattern favoring Republicans and are or have been swing states.

    Critically, though, my interpretation and projection means Obama must win Ohio to achieve victory. And I do give him Ohio. If he doesn’t, he loses, though I don’t give much credence to that possibility.

    • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

      I’m mostly with you, but I think Obama will take Colorado and Virginia. In the geographic sense, they’re a lot like my state, New Mexico, although slightly more squishy electorally. Down here, it’s not even close and as a result, we got almost no national advertising at all for the presidential election. When we’re this solidly Blue, usually that means Colorado is trending that way, too.

      As for Virginia? I think both Hurricane Sandy and the reverse coattail effect from the Senatorial race will help carry that one.

      NC is definitely gonna go for Romney. Florida is the real toss-up. GOP voter suppression on a massive scale versus a riled up Latino and African American community, plus the oldsters who remember that Romney/Ryan wants to take away their Medicare? Could be enough, hard to say, but I won’t be surprised if it’s declared for Mittens.

      • A reader in Colorado

        I have not spent a huge amount of time in NM, but a little time on several occasions

        Except for some common geography and spotty similarities near the border, Colorado is not like New Mexico at all in feel or attitude from what I’ve seen of both states – just my own impression.  Don’t get me wrong, I like NM a lot.  Possibly equally as much as Colorado, which is my native state as well as my home state.Rather, far southern Colorado is a bit like New Mexico, in spotty places, I would say.I liked Albuquerque a lot also, but from what I remember from visiting there, it’s nothing like Denver.

        Politically I don’t think the two states are as close as you think.  Colorado is definitely more politically conservative than NM is.  Colorado is shown to be on a knife’s edge and may very well go for Romney.  Obama could win too, but if he does, it will be by a hair here vs. a comfortable margin in NM.

  • Guest

    So Mitt, the entitled one, can’t pass up the opportunity to shove his face in front of the people of Ohio and Pennsylvania one more time.  Obama, I hope to his credit, has concluded that he’s made his case and it’s now up to the people to decide, and he’s going to shut up and await their decision.  Not so for the Mormon annointed one.  Every last opportunity to hector people.  Does it not occur to him that after awhile people have had enough and want to be accorded a little respect for their right to make up their own minds?  In addition to every other repulsive characteristic they manifest, Romney and his campaign are control freaks.  Enough already!  There are states that prohibit electioneering on election day.  All of them should.

  • Drew2u

    Germany has a few scathing articles/editorials about the decline of the U.S. into capitalism.
    “And a perverse mix of irresponsibility, greed and religious zealotry dominate public opinion.

    The downfall of the American empire has begun. It could be that the
    country’s citizens wouldn’t be able to stop it no matter how hard they
    tried. But they aren’t even trying.”
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/commentary-total-capitalism-and-the-downfall-of-america-a-865437.html
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/divided-states-of-america-notes-on-the-decline-of-a-great-nation-a-865295.html

    • A reader in Colorado

      I agree with the Germans.

    • A reader in Colorado

      Thanks for highlighting this article, I enjoyed it. I found the most critical paragraph this one:

      The truth is that we simply no longer understand America. Looking at the country from Germany and Europe, we see a foreign culture. The political system is in the hands of big business and its lobbyists. The checks and balances have failed. And a perverse mix of irresponsibility, greed and religious zealotry dominate public opinion.

    • Oharaj2

       Ah yes, it’s the Germans we should be looking to fro moral guidance.  LOL!

      • Drew2u

         Considering I have families that I care about in Germany, you can just go ahead and fuck right off, dear troll.

  • hollywoodstein

    Told by an old black man facing hours in line that it is a shame that every four years he gets to be reminded that he is a second class citizen by design. That is a national disgrace.

    • hollywoodstein

      Somebody oughta do something. 

      • hollywoodstein

        yes I know that millions vote all on the same day but as a whitey in toney neighborhoods I have never in my life waited more than 20 minutes to vote and that was because I was chatting with  other rich white people.   Honest to god.

        • hollywoodstein

          How bout this as a national goal.  Noone waits more than an hour to vote, even ifin ur black and live in Floriduh or Ohio.  Isn’t that why we spent MMs on electronic machines.

          • Scott Alexander II

            Floriduh?  Florida’s biggest problem is that all the conservative rejects from other states get dumped here.  What did you expect to happen with that?

            And are you trying to say other states don’t have problems when it comes to elections?Did you go around making fun of Wisconsin because the thousands of people who protested at the capital and who didn’t like Scott Walker’s policies couldn’t get energized enough when it came time for the election to have him ousted with the recall?

            • hollywoodstein

              Yes, why yes I checked and I did make fun of rubes and union members who voted for Scott Walker who wants to disband unions.  But thank you for asking.

            • Drew2u

               Scott Walker endlessly guilt-tripped anyone voting as doing something that was wrong. The strategy worked.

          • Drew2u

             Why don’t we start with making it a constitutionally protected right to vote?

  • hollywoodstein

    Chuckie tweeted that electronic hacking concerns are on par with Trump birther garbage.  The fact that Princeton, James Baker, JImmy Carter, Rice University, Brennan Center for Justice, Stanford, Johns Hopkins, and the Argonne National Laboratory have all said that the machines can be hacked without a trace should be a national emergency and a national disgrace.  Why are hackable machines made or purchased?  Why when Trillions of dollars are at stake do our voting machines not even qualify to be used in a Vegas casino? 
    The polls have been consistent and clear.  if Romney wins the election it will have been stolen by the standards the US uses to declare other nations elections fraudulent.
    Either that or the millions spent on polling is a useless exercise.

    • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

      The mechanisms of elections need to be taken out of partisan hands. We need true national standards for voter registration — including uniform laws regarding re-enfranchisement for felons, guaranteed access to polling places in a timely fashion, and absolutely secure voting processes and tallying.

  • Jim Olson

    I would sure like to go to bed knowing that Obama has been re-elected.  I suspect that internally, the tide has turned against Romney, and that there will not actually be a lot of legal fighting.  The Republican machine will quickly throw Romney under the bus.  

    • hollywoodstein

      Jim, you’re a good soul, and I hope to god you’re right.  But I fear the Republican machine is set to deligitimize Obama’s re-election or steal it.  If Ohio is close provisional ballots will come into play and won’t be official till Nov. 17 at best.  Thousands of poll watchers have been trained to challenge minority voters.  Thousands of lawyers are deployed. The waters will be muddied.  Fox will be calling for Obama to step down for teh good of the nation since he lost teh popular vote etc. 

      I’m with you.  I hope and pray it’s over tomorrow, because it’s over already.  But it’s not who votes, it’s who counts the votes.

  • hollywoodstein

    Toddler is a beltway hack as far as analysis and insight go, but he has his 7 figure station despite the network hiding him most of the year for being ugly ( the goatee doesn’t hide it you chinless wonder), they had to trot him out for elections because he could at least speak the math for 50 states on election night, which evidently none of the other boobs in the mediaspace could do.  More power to him, but I really should send the networks my little black book from college.  Lotsa smart attractive people, ok maybe too smart and attractive to stay with me, and perhaps too smart and attractive to work in the media, but they could run circles around the clowns, even the conservatives.

    O, woe.

  • hollywoodstein

    Vote!
    GOTV!
    Drink!

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