Nate Silver, NYT/538 election poll expert, on Stephen Colbert

11/6/2012 4:52pm by 11

Nate Silver, the election numbers guru from 538.com and the NYT, went on Stephen Colbert’s show last night.

Nate has been unliked lately by Republicans who aren’t thrilled that he’s giving Mitt Romney 9.1% chance of winning today (that’s better than last night’s 7 point something %).

And a number of the media types don’t like Nate either. Apparently they think he’s a witch for constantly getting elections right.

Here’s Nate last night on Colbert:

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@aravosis | Facebook | Google+. Editor of AMERICAblog, joint JD/MSFS from Georgetown, worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, and as a stringer for the Economist. A frequent TV pundit, he has been on The O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline & Reliable Sources. Full bio and .

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  • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

    Other non-partisan predictions:

    - Online betting site Paddypower: Obama odds 6:1, Romney 1:4 . Electoral college over/under is set at 305.5 (Obama’s favor). Romney favored to take Florida and North Carolina, no surprise. Obama to take Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — by short odds in nearly every case, except for Virginia. Popular vote — Obama 7:2, Romney 2:5

    - Intrade: Obama 69.3%, Romney 30.8%, Romney trending down (-2.1 today) and Obama up (+1.1). Of 12 Battleground states, Romney’s ahead in only two, with about the same odds and likelihoods as over on Paddypower. In their model, only Virginia is close.

    - Electoralmap.net, which derives its predictions via Intrade, essentially concurs with the Nate Silver model, except again that Florida goes Romney, giving Obama a 303 EC total, although both Colorado and Virginia are below 60% in certainty. However, even without their 22 EV’s, Obama still would have 281, which is 11 more than the threshold needed for a win.

  • samiinh

    I hope he’s right.  Again. As usual.

  • Paul

     I hope he is wrong!!!

  • Paul

     I hope he is wrong!!!

  • BeckFastPaws

    And what’s wrong with being a witch ?

    • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

      Nothing as far as I’m concerned, because I myself am a practitioner of Wicca.

      • JamesR

        All I know for certain is that Christine O’Donnell is not a witch. Not.

        Not with a “W.”

      • JamesR

        PS Nate Silver has been upgraded from “NO” to “Probably” a witch LOL http://isnatesilverawitch.com/

        • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

          LOL!

  • Dave of the Jungle

    He’s a brilliant young man. I appreciate his work, a lot.

    • Papa Bear

      Nate Silver’s pretty sharp as well…
      ;-)

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