Chance to win: Obama 83.7%, Romney 16.3%

Wow.

I was just looking at Nate Silver’s (of the NYT/538.com) latest analysis of the polls, and he now has President Obama at an 83.7% chance of winning  on Tuesday as compared to Romney’s 16.3%.

It’s interesting to look at Nate’s graph of what the President’s chances were back in May compared to now.  And as I’ve written about before, Obama kept doing better and better vis-a-vis Romney until that first debate.  Then pow!  Obama plummeted, Romney surged, but it just wasn’t enough.  Especially in the key swing states, where I wrote before about how Romney momentum post-debate-one was nothing like it was nationally.  He just didn’t surge in the states he needed.

Source: Nate Silver of 538.com/NYT.

More from Nate:

Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr. Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida.

Nate says the race isn’t too close to call.  The only way that Romney wins now is because the polls were all statistically biased.  A possibility, but not likely:

To be exceptionally clear: I do not mean to imply that the polls are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor. But there is the chance that they could be biased in either direction. If they are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor, then Mr. Romney could still win; the race is close enough. If they are biased in Mr. Romney’s favor, then Mr. Obama will win by a wider-than-expected margin, but since Mr. Obama is the favorite anyway, this will not change who sleeps in the White House on Jan. 20.

My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t.

Huffington Post/Pollster.com concurs with Nate regarding victory and electoral votes.  Nate predicts Obama with 305.3 electoral votes, and Romney with 232.7.  HuffPo gives Obama 281 to Romney’s 191.  Yes, HuffPo is more optimistic, but still gives Obama a healthy margin of victory.

As HuffPo’s Mark Blumental notes, “Obama’s swing-state margins [are] holding.”

As the presidential campaign enters its final weekend, the polling snapshot remains essentially unchanged. President Barack Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney remain essentially deadlocked in most national surveys, but polls in battleground states continue to show Obama with just enough of an edge in states whose electoral votes would add up to more than the 270 needed to win.

With just four days remaining until the vote is counted, poll watchers should be on alert for any developing trends that might signal a late shift in voter preferences. As of this writing, there are a few hints, but none that rise to the level of statistical significance.

Now, polls don’t take into account one side trying to steal an election.  GOP dirty tricks should be expected, and are already happening.  That’s why it’s important that folks not get too cocky about this.  We still need to turn out and vote in higher numbers than the other side cheats.


Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown (1989); and worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, and as a stringer for the Economist. Frequent TV pundit: O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline & Reliable Sources. Bio, .

Share This Post

  • guest

    thats right

  • guest

    you stupid obama go win so shut up go obama no really stay 

  • Garymitchell807

    Does Nate Silver figure in 1-2% drop in Obama voes due to voter suppression

  • hollywoodstein

    The polls have been clear and consistent in Ohio, and are, if anything breaking for Obama.  If Obama loses Ohio either polling is a useless endeavor or the system was gamed. 
     
    James Baker, Jimmy Carter, Princeton, the Brennan Center for Justice, Stanford, Johns Hopkins, Dept. of Energy and Rice University have all been involved in issuing reports that electronic machines can be hacked without a trace.  That is a fact, not tin foil hat stuff, and the fact that an election can be hacked via electronic machines should be a national scandal whether or not you believe any prior elections have been hacked.
    Why are hackable machines without a paper trail even being made much less purchased and used?  Why do we utilize machines to count the votes where Trillions of dollars are at stake when the same machines wouldn’t pass muster in a Vegas casino? 
    Motive, Means, and Opportunity will all be there on Tuesday.  I know some HighNetWorth individuals who are confident Romney will take Ohio despite what the polls say.  We’ll see.
     
    Regardless, we need to impose at the least Vegas type security regimes on these machines or better yet get rid of them.

  • Dham

    Any American that is hiding a 100 million of shore does not deserve to win.  Pay your taxes you greedy bas—-.

  • Joseph Blosch

    Democrats are not above altering the poll data. So, anything is possible.

  • criddler

    you would say that. you expect this president to walk on water. i have news for you. only roosevelt and obama ever had to deal with this kind of mess, roosevelt having a harder job than obama. no other president ever had to deal with anything remotely similar.

    so stop acting stupid, and acknowledge that fiscal freefall we were heading.

    you evil people would play dumb.

  • RIcky

    if the republicans choose to work with this president for the next 4 years, i believe we  can reduce the deficit, boost consumer  and business confidence, increase consumer spending, regain our triple A bond rating, create a climate that creates jobs, cut spending, including medicare and social security spending, which we must cut, and repair vital infrastructure, amoung other things.   if the republicans had worked with president obama on health care we would have had a better health care bill. A president with this record should have been defeated.   The outcome of this election is not an obama victory.  Rather it is a repudiation of juvenile behavior by the republicans.   The american people are begging the republicans to work with this guy.  Will there be tax increases to reduce the deficit? Absolutely.  But they will not hurt the economy.  Presidents Reagan and Clinton proved this.  Will the republicans learn from this huge debacle. I doubt it. The real losers here will be the middle class who are being pummeled by a broken political system in the midst of a global economy. 

  • http://twitter.com/BillFromDover Bill from Dover

     So sorry, but the Roberts Supreme Court already ruled that the 1st gives ya the right to lie:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-supreme-court-defends-the-right-to-lie/2012/06/29/gJQAmC2RCW_story.html

    After all, how else could conservatives frame an argument?

  • http://twitter.com/BillFromDover Bill from Dover

     And I say, look up the definition of a declarative sentence.

  • http://twitter.com/BillFromDover Bill from Dover

     Try Pepto-Bismol, ya won’t smell as bad around your ilk.

  • Swett19

    yall just mad cuz Obama goin 2 win hahahahahahahahahah TEAM OBAMA !!!!!!

  • Mzver88

    Wait… Bush bankrupted the country? I’m not saying his administration didn’t spend too much but please do remember that Obama added more to the debt before the end of his first term than Bush did in both if his.

  • Wardad

    why do Americans fail to see romney for the evil nasty brain dead thug that he is ? as for his business acumen any mug could make a pile of money from an already large pile of money ,romney scares the rest of us outside america absolutely witless ,like him!

  • Johncrouse

    Go Obama/Biden… (no, really… GO!)

  • Johncrouse

    What a load of crap!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/UIF3KDAIOXBZTC7FTKVZCVOMUU David

    It’s better than going back to Bush Chenney who bankrupted the country and got a lot of our son’s and daughter’s killed in a fake war. Robme has nothing but bush adviser’s around him waiting to go back to war. The other thing is Romney boys are all girls, scared to go into the military you know like Biden’s son, Romney’s are to good and rich to serve our country in the military. They will let some else be the real men.

  • Melodyratliff

    Also mitt is a big FAT liar who thinks he’s doing right!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Melodyratliff2000

    I truely think that obama should win becase he’s got what it takes!He’s won once and he’ll win again.TEAM OBAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Jcupkake

    Dooood! What a refreshing insight to an otherwise boring past year of cable TV talking heads pleasuring themselves with their own lips for all to see.The first thing our next president should do on day one is to mandate that the FCC put warning label banners on all Fox CNN MSNBC broadcasts that they are for entertainment purposes only and do not reflect anything that can be measured or identified through science or by reason.

  • Godzilla

    interesting how that graph looks like a corpse.Kinda says it all as to what our political system has become- a dead horse that you just can’t beat.

  • kingstonbears

    And a super big howdy doody to all our trolls tonight.  What, the porn channels are down, again?

  • Hoya222

    Go Obama/Biden

  • Brock2118

    Wow. What a treat.  Four more years of big government, big deficits and big tax and regulation increases.

  • Kamalayka

    I cannot believe how biased this article.

    Go look up former CNN reporter/whistleblower Amber Lyon to catch a glimpse of the disguisting US corporate media.

    Anyways. . .

    Gary Johnson 2012.

    They say a vot for third party is a wasted vote – I say a vote for the Dems/GOP is a wasted vote.

  • ComradeRutherford

    Exit polls are true, that’s why the GOP had banned them everywhere they could.  So that when they defraud the vote count, there’s no way to discount it.  This is also why the polls are always rigged to keep the numbers close, that way when the GOP defrauds the election, it seems plausible to the people.

  • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

    Unfortunately for the rest of us, the tribe doesn’t believe in democracy. And they’re crazy.

  • kingstonbears

    One of my fears is that these positive polls may start people to become complacent.  We all should know by now that we can’t trust the GOP.

  • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

    As you noted, John, the one factor Nate Silver can’t include in his estimates is the effect of voter suppression in GOP-controlled swing states (which, as Rachel Maddow pointed out the other night, is most of them) and after-Nov-6 vote counting shenanigans on the part of — you guessed it — GOP-favoring electronic vote tallying corporations.

    In the objective reality-acknowledging world, election results wildly out of kilter with non-partisan pre-election and exit polls has traditionally been proven to be the result of fraud. We already know the GOPers have been playing games with election results since Max Cleland’s loss. Let’s not forget that John Kerry’s exit poll numbers in Ohio had him leading 3-6% — then the numbers started coming in and we had ballot spoilage rates unprecedentedly high, and all of them in Dem-leaning counties. (For a full accounting, see http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0601-34.htm  )

    That all said, if Romney goes down next Tuesday, I believe two main factors will be the reasons cited historically as to why: (1) The weakness and blatant mendacity of Mitt Romney himself (subjectively, I think he’s the worst candidate the Republicans have nominated in my lifetime, which for me goes all the way back to the 1960s — and yes, this personal assessment includes George W Bush). (2) Hurricane Sandy, which brought into crystal clear sharp relief the difference in leadership qualities and professional demeanor of the Democratic incumbent versus his GOP challenger.

    Seriously: President Obama shows up with NJ Governor Christie promising government help with the recovery. Romney, on the other hand, relabels a scheduled Ohio campaign event as a victory rally relief event, and is caught having ginned it up Potemkin Village-style with campaign-purchased goods. And as a bonus, Mittens has to keep walking back his previous ‘Bagger-pandering remarks about abolishing and privatizing FEMA (or, as has been his habit for most of the last month, simply refusing to take any questions from the press at all).

    If Romney wins? The main reasons will be GOP election rigging (i.e., voter suppression measures and bogus tallies) and the Citizens United money gushers. We’ll know this is true especially if exit poll numbers are significantly different from election tally results. Why? Because people simply do not lie about who they voted for.

    In the longer run, I’m far more concerned with whether the Dems will hang on to the Senate. Looks likely, but again… Assuming so, will Harry Reid then have the huevos to finally push his caucus to adopt filibuster rules reform? Or is he gonna wuss out again? Winning the House appears to be out of reach for the Dems, but will they manage to peel off enough of the few remaining sensible, moderate Republicans to begin running the country responsibly again — or will it be four more years of gridlock? And assuming what is shaping up to be a nearly status quo election result, is there any chance whatsoever of stopping the ‘Grand Bargain’, which most of us know is going to consist of cuts in Social Security and Medicare, coupled with more defense budget increases and making large portions of the Bush(/Obama) tax cuts permanent? Is it even possible anymore to argue that Hooveresque austerity policies simply Do Not Work, and never have?

    If these last things end up being true, gridlock might be the better result, actually.

  • Guest

    Because there’s no there there.  Romney is an empty suit.  All we have on the right is an appeal to tribalism.  Unfortunately for them, the tribe is shrinking.

  • paul Winthrop

    Romney is a habitual teller of lies. He should not be confirmed as President until these lies are looked into if he is elected. If he is allowed to take office it will be the greatest crime against the American people to date. His constant need to change his mind should tell any level headed American that he may have some serious mental problems.
               We are very close electing a dictator because Romney thinks he knows and only he knows whats right. A dictator of recent history wrote a book saying what he would do if he got into power. He was elected and did what he had written in his book which the world ignored. Can we ignore this man ?

  • http://buddybest.tripod.com/index.html BuddyNovinski

    The real question is why they’re close at all.  Willard Romney is pushing even more Reaganomics, which I’ve opposed vigorously since 1984, for even more deficits and welfare for the wealthy.

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