Obama is ahead in seven polls in the key state of Ohio released in the past 48 hours, and PPP has just released a Michigan poll showing Obama with a healthy lead in that state. First, from PPP:
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45. Although there has been a lot of talk recently about Romney having the chance to pull off an upset in the state, these numbers indicate that possibility is quite a long shot
Key findings from the survey include:
-An outright majority of Michigan voters approve of Obama’s performance as President with 52% giving him good marks to 46% who disapprove. Romney is not a popular figure in his native state with only 46% of voters rating him favorably to 49% with an unfavorable opinion.
-Obama is leading thanks to wide advantages with women (60/38), African Americans (86/8), and voters under 65 (55/42). Romney is ahead with men (53/44), whites (50/48), and seniors (53/45), but he’d need much wider margins with those groups to have any hope of winning Michigan.
-Obama has wide advantages over Romney in terms of who voters trust more to stand up for the middle class (55/42) and protect Medicare (52/44). Romney’s inability to convince regular people that he would be an advocate for them makes it very difficult for him to compete in a state like Michigan.
Next, Nate Silver’s recent tweet about Ohio:
President Obama continues to hold slight leads in the crucial battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, while the equally critical races in Florida and Virginia are too close to call, according to a new crop of swing state polls.
More on Ohio and why it matters from a different article in the Post:
As we’ve written many times on this blog, the Electoral College math for Romney is, quite simply, very difficult.
According to the current Fix projections, Obama has 255 electoral votes either solidly in his column or leaning towards him (including Ohio’s 18), while Romney has just 206. So assuming Obama wins Ohio, he would need to win just 15 of the 77 electoral votes in the toss-up states.
One of the many Ohio polls Obama is doing well in is the Project New America/US Action poll, where Obama leads Romney 48% to 45%. They say that women are providing the lead for Obama:
Women provide the lead for Obama (52% to 43%)
while the race is close among men (45% to 48%).
The gap is even wider among blue-collar, noncollege women (54% to 42%).
While not exactly news, it is worth reporting that the
President has locked the African American vote
(94% to 4%).