Obama leads Ohio in 7 polls released in past 48 hours

Obama is ahead in seven polls in the key state of Ohio released in the past 48 hours, and PPP has just released a Michigan poll showing Obama with a healthy lead in that state.  First, from PPP:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 53-45. Although there has been a lot of talk recently about Romney having the chance to pull off an upset in the state, these numbers indicate that possibility is quite a long shot

Key findings from the survey include:

-An outright majority of Michigan voters approve of Obama’s performance as President with 52% giving him good marks to 46% who disapprove. Romney is not a popular figure in his native state with only 46% of voters rating him favorably to 49% with an unfavorable opinion.

-Obama is leading thanks to wide advantages with women (60/38), African Americans (86/8), and voters under 65 (55/42). Romney is ahead with men (53/44), whites (50/48), and seniors (53/45), but he’d need much wider margins with those groups to have any hope of winning Michigan.

-Obama has wide advantages over Romney in terms of who voters trust more to stand up for the middle class (55/42) and protect Medicare (52/44). Romney’s inability to convince regular people that he would be an advocate for them makes it very difficult for him to compete in a state like Michigan.

Next, Nate Silver’s recent tweet about Ohio:

The Washington Post has more about the Ohio polls:

President Obama continues to hold slight leads in the crucial battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, while the equally critical races in Florida and Virginia are too close to call, according to a new crop of swing state polls.

More on Ohio and why it matters from a different article in the Post:

As we’ve written many times on this blog, the Electoral College math for Romney is, quite simply, very difficult.

According to the current Fix projections, Obama has 255 electoral votes either solidly in his column or leaning towards him (including Ohio’s 18), while Romney has just 206. So assuming Obama wins Ohio, he would need to win just 15 of the 77 electoral votes in the toss-up states.

One of the many Ohio polls Obama is doing well in is the Project New America/US Action poll, where Obama leads Romney 48% to 45%.  They say that women are providing the lead for Obama:

Women provide the lead for Obama (52% to 43%)
while the race is close among men (45% to 48%).
The gap is even wider among blue-collar, noncollege women (54% to 42%).

While not exactly news, it is worth reporting that the
President has locked the African American vote
(94% to 4%).


Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Google+. John Aravosis is the editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown (1989); and worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, and as a stringer for the Economist. Frequent TV pundit: O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline & Reliable Sources. Bio, .

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  • Bluestocking

    Of course, if anything, this gives the Republicans an incentive to engage in dirty tricks of some kind…such as the Republican-controlled election board in one county in northern Ohio which recently sent mail to voters in some precincts which listed the wrong date as Election Day and which incorrectly identified the polling place.  (What do you want to bet that the precincts in question are predominantly Democratic????)  Of course, the director of the board claimed that the errors were unintentional…but if they weren’t, do you honestly expect him to come out and admit it publicly?

  • Ohis

     PPP is like Rasmussen, partisan.

  • SimonPaul2000

    “You’ve come home from war to the person you love, what are you gonna do now?”

    “I’m gonna vote!”

    http://cheezburger.com/6710064640

  • Gfulmore

    I’ve been calling Ohio for months how for Obama.  The info I have on those I call does not give their party affiliation, history of voting or age.  I only get the name and city.  Most of those I talk to seem to be white, many are middle-aged to elderly.  Race does not come up much at all, which speaks well for Ohio, I think.  Some seem really fooled by the promises of Mitt Romney to balance the budget while lowing taxes at the same time.  I don’t see how they can get there.  Few seem to understand the full benefits of Obamacare, especially to those with pre-conditions and/or the lack of money to afford health insurance premiums.   The basis for their preferences for Obama seems to be that he is the better of the two men, the one with the most concern for the middle-class and the country, as a whole.  In the process of calling tons of people in Ohio, I’ve gained a respect for the people there that I, frankly, did not expect.  They really are very fair-minded.  And, I’ve also learned that most Americans think in similar ways.  We really do have a unity of spirit, for the most part.  In any case, Barack Obama appears to be blessed with the votes from the majority of voters in Ohio, which, of course, is what he needs to win the election. 

  • http://www.rebeccamorn.com/mind BeccaM

    It does seem to be related to (1) gas stations lacking power, (2) people needing gas to run their generators, (3) in some cases, the difficulty in gas tankers getting to the stations, and (4) quite a few gas stations in the affected areas were literally destroyed or flooded out. In short, people needing more gas in general, being funneled to far fewer functioning and fully stocked stations.

    The unfortunate part is so many didn’t fill up their vehicles before the storm hit.

  • GG

    Any gasoline being delivered to any gas stations that are flooded is useless unless you want water in your gasoline thus in your gas tank.
    Even if a gas station is not flooded, you can’t get gasoline out of the ground-tank, up into the pump and then into you gas tank if there is no power.

  • Guest

    There is a brewing issue in New York and New Jersey that needs urgent attention.  For reasons not completely clear, gasoline is in short supply.  There are news reports of miles’ long lines for gas — with photographs.  It may be related to power outages.  It may be more complicated than that.  Regardless, with public transportation largely down, it’s potentially an explosive issue. 

  • Seth Wright

    You’re magic underwear can’t save you this time, Mitt!

  • PorridgeGun

    New PPP Virginia: OBAMA +3 (49 – 46)

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