UPDATE: Didn’t mean to confuse people. This poll is from last year. But, I found it and posted because Gallup was all over the news on Monday because Gallup began its daily tracking of the 2012 presidential race. The first poll found Romney leading 47% – 45%. Since there was going to be a lot of buzz about Gallup, tracking polls and trendlines, wanted to remind everyone what Gallup found on marriage.
Back in October of 2010, a politician, who doesn’t support marriage equality, said to me:
The one thing I will say today is I think it’s pretty clear where the trendlines are going.
Seems like that trendline gets clearer and clearer every day.
Check out this new image from Gallup:
That’s a trendline moving in the right direction.
Here are some of the key findings from this latest Gallup poll:
For the first time in Gallup’s tracking of the issue, a majority of Americans (53%) believe same-sex marriage should be recognized by the law as valid, with the same rights as traditional marriages. The increase since last year came exclusively among political independents and Democrats. Republicans’ views did not change.
These results are based on Gallup’s May 5-8 Values and Beliefs poll, which has tracked attitudes toward legalizing same-sex marriage each year since 2004, adding to Gallup’s initial polling on the topic in 1996 and 1999.
This year’s nine-percentage-point increase in support for same-sex marriage is the largest year-to-year shift yet measured over this time period. Two-thirds of Americans were opposed to legalized same-sex marriage in 1996, with 27% in favor. By 2004, support had risen to 42% and, despite some fluctuations from year to year, stayed at roughly that level through last year.
And, two important nuggets:
Democrats’ and independents’ support for legalized same-sex marriage increased this year by 13 and 10 points, respectively. Republicans’ views on the issue did not change from last year. Clear majorities of both Democrats and independents now support gay marriage, 69% and 59% respectively, contrasted with 28% support among Republicans.
Support for legal gay marriage decreases markedly with age, ranging from 70% support among those aged 18 to 34, to 39% support among those 55 and older. More broadly, support is highest among younger women and lowest among older men.
So, actually, the trendline is very, very clear. Just annoying that some politicians are so behind the trend.
In DC, marriage equality is viewed as a political issue — and the geniuses running the Obama campaign are making a political calculation about our equality. It’s the wrong calculation. But, no one can tell them that.