Nate Silver updates model on how states will vote on marriage bans

Nate Silver updates his model for predicting the outcome of ballot initiatives on marriage equality and marriage equality and civil unions. His piece includes an update on Minnesota, North Carolina, Iowa, New York, California, Oregon, New Hampshire and Maine.

Last week’s passage of a bill to make New York’s marriage law gender-neutral may accelerate efforts to put the issue before voters in other states.

A measure to ban same-sex marriage in Minnesota’s Constitution is already scheduled to be on the ballot in 2012, and one could follow in North Carolina. But with relatively few states now holding neutral positions on same-sex marriage, there may be efforts to repeal constitutional bans that already exist, such as in California and Oregon.

It is high time, therefore, to revisit the model that I originally built in 2009, which aims to predict the percentage of the vote that gay marriage-related ballot initiatives will receive.

The update is here.


Born and raised in Maine, Nick Seaver moved to DC to study political communication in 2003. He began writing extensively on LGBT rights during the first ballot initiative in Maine that overturned marriage equality. He writes about a variety of issues, ranging from marriage to issues facing LGBT youth. Follow him on Twitter at @NDSeaver.

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