On this momentous day over fifteen years in the making, Public Policy Polling takes a look at Newt’s chances in 2012. And, well, it doesn’t look good for him.
First a look at his standing with Republican voters. In January his national favorability with them was a +34 spread at 58/24. Over the first few months of this year those numbers have seen a 10 point shift in the wrong direction to +24 at 54/30. That downward trend is backed up in five different states where we did a Republican primary poll in January and then another one in the last month- his net favorability has dropped a minimum of 3 points in each of those and in one case it’s dropped by 23. [...]
Winning the primary also might prove to be a Pyrrhic victory for Gingrich. National polling we’ll release today finds him down by 14 points to Barack Obama at 52-38, a deficit that would give Democrats their biggest victory in a Presidential race since Barry Goldwater’s ill fated bid in 1964. And our state polling has found Obama ahead of Gingrich in states like Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona that Democrats have not won since the 90s, so there’s an entirely decent chance that a Gingrich nomination could get Obama up over the 400 electoral vote mark.
It would certainly be an epic comeback if Gingrich got elected President…but it’s hard to see him working his way back from these kinds of numbers.