In PA and MO Senate races, Sestak and Carnahan are closing the gap

According to Politics Daily, the two of races with the most outside spending are in Pennsylvania and Missouri:

Pennsylvania’s Senate race between Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey ranks second in outside general election spending at almost $9 million, followed by Missouri’s Senate race between Republican Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan at $7.7 million.

And, it’s GOP-related outside groups who are doing most of that spending.

That’s why two polls released from Public Policy Polling (PPP) are especially significant — and hopeful.

In Pennsylvania, Sestak has move into the lead:

You can put Pennsylvania Senate back in the toss up category. Joe Sestak leads Pat Toomey 46-45 in our newest poll of the race, erasing the 9 point deficit he had in an August PPP survey.

Toomey’s support has remained stagnant over the last 2 months while Sestak’s has gone up 10 points from 36% to 46%.

I’ve always thought that Joe Sestak was going to win this race. It’s a tough one, no doubt. But, he’s tenacious and he seems to have a history of surging ahead just at the right time. Well, that’s what happened in the primary earlier this year. Sestak’s website is here.

And, In Missouri Carnahan is closing the gap:

The Missouri Senate race is getting closer, with Robin Carnahan pulling within 5 points of Roy Blunt in a new PPP poll conducted for her campaign. Blunt’s lead is 46-41, in contrast with the 45-38 advantage he had when we last took a look at the race in August.

On Missouri, PPP’s Tom Jensen concludes:

Some pundits have written off this race as an opportunity for Democrats to pick up a seat but Carnahan is within the margin of error and picking up support and if her party’s base continues to awaken in the final 15 days before the election this race could provide a surprise.

Now, admittedly, I’m biased in this one. Robin has been a good friend for a long time. But, I’ve watched win before when it was not expected. And, she’s a marathon runner — and that’s how she’s approached this campaign. She’s been steady throughout. These new numbers show movement towards Robin despite all the outside spending by Karl Rove and the Chamber of Commerce. Her website is here.

And, Roy Blunt really is a sleazebag. He garnered some really bad press over the past couple days because of his “grumpy” behavior during and after debates.

Yes, the national dynamics are working against Democrats in many states. But, it really helps to have Democratic candidates who are tough and focused.

Also, I believe in PPP. I’ve watched that firm see trends and movement before anyone else.


On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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