Democrats up six in Gallup generic poll. GOP enthusiasm at highest level since April

Some good news from Gallup. The Democrats have moved ahead in the generic poll:

In the same week the U.S. Senate passed a major financial reform bill touted as reining in Wall Street, Democrats pulled ahead of Republicans, 49% to 43%, in voters’ generic ballot preferences for the 2010 congressional elections.

The Democrats’ six-point advantage in Gallup Daily interviewing from July 12-18 represents the first statistically significant lead for that party’s candidates since Gallup began weekly tracking of this measure in March.

That’s encouraging. The House Democrats, for the most part, have delivered on key elements of the Democratic agenda. And, they’re all up for reelection this year.

A number of pundits will gag and choke if they try to spit out this line, “independents are primarily responsible for Democrats’ improved positioning.” But, I suspect you won’t hear that much. It defies the current conventional wisdom.

Now, the not-so-good news. The Republican base is motivated. Really motivated:

Simultaneous with increased support for Democratic congressional candidates, Gallup polling last week found Republican voters expressing significantly more enthusiasm about voting in the 2010 midterms. The 51% of Republicans saying they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this fall is up from 40% the week prior, and is the highest since early April — shortly after passage of healthcare reform. Democratic enthusiasm is unchanged, at 28%.

Trying to scare the Democratic base with images of Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader McConnell isn’t enough to motivate the base.

The Democratic leadership in DC needs to rile up its base. Creating jobs and getting the economy moving is most important. But, there are several constituencies, including LGBTs, Latinos and labor, that need some motivation. And, there’s still time to motivate them.


On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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