Nate Silver says R-71 in Washington State will pass (i.e., good guys win)

From Nate (via Publicola):

The Odds: Although there is a lot of uncertainty in both the polling and the statistical model because of the ambiguity of the measure under consideration, they do tend to point toward the same result: Referendum 71 passing by a margin on the order of 7-10 points. Coupled with what appears to be movement toward the pro-domestic partnership side — which may reflect voters familiarizing themselves with the language of the ballot — and what also appears to be an advantage for the Approve side in votes collected thus far, Referendum 71 appears to be fairly safe. I would give about 10-1 odds against its being rejected.


Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown (1989); and worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, and as a stringer for the Economist. Frequent TV pundit: O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline & Reliable Sources. Bio, .

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