Latest poll shows No on 1 leading in Maine

A new poll was released yesterday showing a lead for the No on 1 side in Maine. This is interesting, but I believe ballot measures are notoriously difficult to poll. It all depends on getting out the vote:

Monday’s poll results were quite different from those released by a North Carolina firm last week.

That poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 likely voters, said the Question 1 race was in a 48-48 percent dead heat. Public Policy Polling, which uses automated telephone surveys, said 4 percent were undecided in the poll, which had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Monday’s poll, by Pan Atlantic SMS Group of Portland, asked 400 likely voters how they planned to vote on the five major ballot questions.

On Question 1, 53 percent indicated they would vote “no,” 42 percent said they would vote “yes” and 6 percent were undecided.

The poll has a margin of error of 5 points.

That’s a pretty high margin of error. A poll released on October 14th by the same firm had the margin at 52% – 43%.

We’ll probably see a couple more polls between now and November 3rd. But, turnout is what matters. It’s all that matters. I’ll be on the ground in Maine for the next week working on getting out the vote. I’ll be updating from Maine on a regular basis.


On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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