A new poll was released yesterday showing a lead for the No on 1 side in Maine. This is interesting, but I believe ballot measures are notoriously difficult to poll. It all depends on getting out the vote:
Monday’s poll results were quite different from those released by a North Carolina firm last week.
That poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 likely voters, said the Question 1 race was in a 48-48 percent dead heat. Public Policy Polling, which uses automated telephone surveys, said 4 percent were undecided in the poll, which had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Monday’s poll, by Pan Atlantic SMS Group of Portland, asked 400 likely voters how they planned to vote on the five major ballot questions.
On Question 1, 53 percent indicated they would vote “no,” 42 percent said they would vote “yes” and 6 percent were undecided.
The poll has a margin of error of 5 points.
That’s a pretty high margin of error. A poll released on October 14th by the same firm had the margin at 52% – 43%.
We’ll probably see a couple more polls between now and November 3rd. But, turnout is what matters. It’s all that matters. I’ll be on the ground in Maine for the next week working on getting out the vote. I’ll be updating from Maine on a regular basis.