DailyKos polled Maine on the marriage question. Markos posted the results today. Overall, the anti-marriage side leads by a margin of 48% – 46%, which is inside the margin of error. Women are on our side by a margin of 49% – 44%. With men, it flips to 43% – 52%. As you might expect, age is also a key factor. The analysis:
The forces of bigotry have a 2-point lead, but it’s within the margin of error. This thing is statistically tied. It’s a toss-up. It’s a battle between the side who can best bring out its supporters to the polls. And it’s a battle to persuade that tiny percent of undecideds to vote for equality. In fact, millions will be spent by both sides to bring that 6 percent home. You can help the “no” side protect marriage equality by contributing here.
The demographics are a mixed bag — men aren’t with us, but women are. Democrats are obviously a strong demo for us, and with 9 percent of the undecided coming from their ranks, that’s a positive sign. Independents lean our way, but it’d be nice to grow our margin there, since Republicans will be motivated to turn out, and they’ll provide the bulk of the bigot vote.
Young people are strongly with us, older folk aren’t. Who are the more dependable voters? We can’t take anything for granted on that front. Getting out the youth vote will be imperative for the “No on 1” campaign.
We always knew going in that this was going to be a battle til the end and getting out our vote will be critical. In Maine, that will determine the winner. I’ve done Get-out-the vote in Maine many times. The people working on our side really know how to do it. And, I mean really know how to do it.
More after the break…
After our side lost on Prop. 8, the campaign consultant, Frank Schubert (also the consultant in Maine) boasted about his side’s ground game:
It won because we created superior advertising that deﬁned the issues on our terms; because we built a diverse coalition; and, most importantly, because we activated that coalition at the grassroots level in a way that had never before been done.
His side won’t have that advantage in Maine. Our side will. There isn’t a base of Mormons who will go door-to-door.
The Catholic Church Stand for Marriage doesn’t have the bodies or the resources to build a field operation.
In a post at DailyKos, Paul Hogarth explains how those who want to help with the field campaign can do it:
That’s why the “No on 1” campaign is urging supporters to take a week of vacation time in October (when the Maine fall colors are in their full glory) – and come volunteer. And because flying from California can be expensive and challenging, local Obama activists who helped send volunteers to the swing states last year have launched “Travel for Change” – where supporters can donate money and/or airline miles to send a volunteer to Maine. No Californian who wants to go to Maine should feel deterred by the expense of a trip – just plan to go for at least a week.
Maine is great in the fall. And, we’re going to make history there.