Va. Governor’s Democratic primary is statistical tie with four days to go

Yesterday, DailyKos released a poll of the Virginia Democratic primary. The vote is this coming Tuesday, June 9th. It’s tight:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/18-20 results)

Democratic Primary voters MoE 5%

Creigh Deeds (D) 30 (13)
Brian Moran (D) 27 (22)
Terry McAuliffe (D) 26 (36)
Undecided 17 (29)

Off the bat, the numbers are clearly a statistical tie, leading to the obvious conclusion that the best field organization is going to win this thing.

I don’t have a horse in this race, but Markos makes a key point in his analysis:

Whatever the opposite of “momentum” is, McAuliffe has that.

I think I’ve experienced part of the reason why McAuliffe is tanking. McAuliffe has a huge financial advantage according to the Washington Post:

McAuliffe, a veteran fundraiser with political connections across the country, raised $1.8 million in the two-month period ending Wednesday. His $6.9 million war chest allowed him to start airing TV ads in January and this week expand his TV blitz into the expensive Northern Virginia market…

…McAuliffe’s enormous financial edge — he outspent Moran on television by more than 20 to 1 and Deeds by more than 2 to 1 through Wednesday — has enabled him to mount a two-pronged assault, with money spent on advertising and on a sophisticated, staff-intensive effort designed to get his voters to the polls. But his prolific fundraising has also prompted his rivals to accuse him of trying to buy the office.

In DC, we’re in that “expensive Northern Virginia market.” So, I’m seeing a lot of Terry McAuliffe’s ads featuring Terry McAuliffe. Let me tell you this: a little Terry McAuliffe goes a long, long, long way. His consultants made a mistake featuring McAuliffe so prominently in the ads. He’s annoying and quickly becomes grating.

I just want the Democrat to win in November. The Republican candidate is a right-winger named Bob McDonnell. I’ve seen a lot of ads trashing McDonnell already – and he’s on the air with his own spot. If McAuliffe pulls off the primary, he better get a new ad team or a new t.v. strategy.


On October 27, 2010, Joe was one of five bloggers who interviewed President Obama. Joe is a DC-based political consultant with over twenty-five years of experience at both the state and federal level. Joe has managed political operations and legislative efforts for both candidates and issues-based organizations. For seven years, he was the Director of State Legislation at Handgun Control, Inc. He served as that organization's first Political Director during the 2000 cycle. Joe is a graduate of the University of Maine School of Law. In addition, he has a Masters in Public Administration from Lehigh University and received his B.A. from the University of New Hampshire. Joe also has a fun dog, Petey, a worthy successor to Boomer, who got Joe through eight years of Bush and Cheney. Joe likes to think he is a world class athlete having finished the 2005 Chicago Marathon in the time of 4:10. He has completed six other marathons as well -- and is still determined to break the four hour mark.

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