Consensus of 51 forecasters: US economy to finally rebound 2nd half of 2009

Finally some good news.

“Consumer spending and residential investment are expected to turn positive and begin boosting GDP growth in the third quarter of this year,” the newsletter Blue Chip Economic Indicators said, summarizing its survey of private economists.

The consensus of the 51 forecasters surveyed looks for U.S. gross domestic product to tumble at a sharp 5.3 percent annual rate in the first quarter and to decline at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.

In the third quarter, however, economists expect the economy to expand at a 0.5 percent rate, followed by a 1.8 percent fourth-quarter gain.

Now, that doesn’t mean all will be rosy by summer. It will still take a long time for the economy overall to get back to normal, including employment levels. In fact, the average unemployment rate is expected to be higher in 2010 than this year. But, at least if we turn a corner this summer, that will give people hope – an important factor in turning around consumer demand. We just need to make sure that any such turnaround in GDP growth isn’t used by Republicans to kill any future stimulus, or other legislation, needed to ensure our full recovery.

Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Instagram | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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