Friday jobs numbers might be ugly

Forecasts vary from a consensus of 475,000 losses in December up to 750,000 and possibly even 1,000,000. The losses from January through end of November have been just shy of 1,000,000 so the upward trend is going in a dangerous direction. To break even with incoming workers the US economy needs to generate 150,000 jobs per month.

New Year optimism is likely to be shaken by shocking numbers in the monthly employment report, with a loss of one million jobs coming “sooner than you might think,” ING Bank analyst Rob Carnell wrote in a research note.

“At the risk of sounding like ‘Dr. Evil’, there is a very real possibility of seeing monthly payrolls falling by a million in the next few months,” Carnell wrote.

Payroll losses could reach seven figures as soon as January or February, he added.

The latest nonfarm payrolls report is due out on Friday and analysts surveyed by forecast that 475,000 jobs were shed in December, slightly fewer than November’s 533,000.

An American in Paris, France. BA in History & Political Science from Ohio State. Provided consulting services to US software startups, launching new business overseas that have both IPO’d and sold to well-known global software companies. Currently launching a new cloud-based startup. Full bio here.

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