Oh my God, McCain is catching up!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh my God, he’s really not!

And now, with just six days left before voters go to the polls, McCain lead pollster Bill McInturff is out with a memo in which he argues that the race continues to move in his candidate’s direction…

McInturff’s argument that the race is closing is on sound ground as it relates to recent history. Presidential elections do tend to close as the end nears and McCain, by all accounts, has been underperforming among soft Republicans who may well be coming home to him in these final days.

And, there are some national polls that show some level of tightening. Check out pollster.com’s map of all national surveys and notice the slight uptick for McCain and slight dip for Obama of late.

Yet, it is important to remember that the presidential election is a state by state race — not a national one — and there remains scant evidence of a McCain boomlet in key states.

Although McInturff refers to the gains the campaign has seen in state polling, he makes mention of no specific state data.

Of the public data available — as numbers guru Nate Silver (of the 538) makes clear — the vast majority points to continued Obama momentum in the states.

“Stop me if you’ve heard this one before,” writes Silver. “Although the national trackers look slightly stronger for John McCain than they did a couple days ago, Barack Obama once again had an exceptionally good day in the state-level numbers.”

And, judging by recent ad traffic — one of the only true ways to monitor where things stand — Obama remains on offense as the Republican National Committee is now up with ads in Montana and West Virginia, states that had long been considered GOP strongholds in this election.

Do national polls show McCain closing the gap slightly? By and large, they do. Is that movement meaningful and reflective of a broader momentum change for the Arizona senator? That seems less likely judging by where things still stand in the states.


Follow me on Twitter: @aravosis | @americablog | @americabloggay | Facebook | Instagram | Google+ | LinkedIn. John Aravosis is the Executive Editor of AMERICAblog, which he founded in 2004. He has a joint law degree (JD) and masters in Foreign Service from Georgetown; and has worked in the US Senate, World Bank, Children's Defense Fund, the United Nations Development Programme, and as a stringer for the Economist. He is a frequent TV pundit, having appeared on the O'Reilly Factor, Hardball, World News Tonight, Nightline, AM Joy & Reliable Sources, among others. John lives in Washington, DC. .

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